from CNBC Television
Where Investors Should Put Their Money if Higher Inflation Becomes Normal
Noah Solomon: Several things will make it challenging for inflation to be as well-behaved as it has been in decades past
by Noah Solomon
Financial Post
The past few decades have been largely defined by low inflation, declining rates and a highly favourable investment environment, but conditions will be markedly different going forward and this will have significant repercussions for portfolios.
This disinflationary, ultra-low-rate backdrop in large part resulted from China’s rapid industrialization and growth. Specifically, the integration of hundreds of millions of participants into the global pool of labour represents a colossally positive supply side shock that served to keep inflation at previously unthinkably well-tamed levels in the face of record low rates.
More “Transitory” Inflation On the Way… Look at What is Skyrocketing
from King World News
More “transitory” inflation is on the way. Look at what is skyrocketing…
Debts & Deficits Matter
June 20 (King World News) – Peter Boockvar: With the Congressional Budget Office raising its fiscal 2024 deficit estimate to almost $2 trillion I believe we are sooner rather than later going to resolve the debate over whether ever rising debts and deficits matter for the direction of borrowing costs. The danger though now is that part of the rising estimates is due to higher interest rates. I get the question all the time as to when will DC care which would result in some action to slow the pace of rising debts and deficits and my only answer is when the bond market forces them to and I’ll define that as a 6% 10 yr note yield. That would create some shock to the system I’m guessing that could create some crisis where something might get done.
Gold Can Help Hedge Inflation Risk of Republican Sweep, Says Goldman Sachs
by Steve Goldstein
Market Watch
Their view is that a Republican sweep in presidential and congressional elections would present the biggest risks to inflation and bond returns, stemming from higher import tariffs; slower immigration; tighter sanctions on Iranian oil; lower taxes; and, in Goldman’s phrasing, “stronger attempts to influence Fed policy.”
[…] Donald Trump, the former president who is on his way to a third straight Republican presidential nod, has suggested replacing income taxes with tariffs.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump allies have drawn up plans to blunt the Federal Reserve’s independence, though the campaign has not confirmed it has any such plans.
Poll: ‘Inflation and Economy’ Top Priority for Americans, Abortion Last
by Hannah Bleau
Breitbart.com
“Inflation and the economy” is standing as the top priority for Americans, while abortion is coming in last, a June Cygnal survey found.
The survey asked respondents to identify their top priority, and a plurality, 27.9 percent, chose inflation and the economy as their top priority. Illegal immigration — another strong suit of former President Donald Trump — emerged as the second-most important issue, with 19.7 percent of respondents choosing that.
“Threats to democracy” came in third place, with 15.3 percent, but all other issues came in the single digits. Just 7.8 percent chose healthcare as a top priority, followed by national security (6.4 percent), climate change (5.9 percent), gun control (5.8 percent), crime and public safety (5.4 percent), and abortion (4.1 percent). Another 1.7 percent were unsure of their top priority.
Democrats Play the Blame Game On Rent Inflation
by Louis Rouanet
The American Institute for Economic Research
Inflation is the surest way to trigger a Pavlovian response from politicians, whereby they blame monopolists, middlemen, greedy entrepreneurs, profiteers, and price gougers. In 1793, French Revolutionaries fueled inflation by running persistent deficits that they monetized. Their response was to instill fear — courtesy of the guillotine — by blaming productive French citizens for being greedy. Luckily, the guillotine has long been ditched, but the common tropes used by the Biden administration and its allied members of Congress to deflect blame for inflation have not.
While the money supply has increased by more than 30 percent since 2020, and the Federal government deficit is above 5 percent of national income with no end in sight, Democrats have preferred to blame the private sector. Their most recent target is RealPage, a US software provider that analyzes supply and demand dynamics in the rental real estate market to help landlords price their properties.
History Tells Us the Danger the Economy Faces is Recession, Not Inflation
by Paul A. London
The Hill
The Federal Reserve announced on June 12 that it is not lowering interest rates at this time. It is standing pat, although inflation is falling, consumers are limiting purchases, and big national chains are cutting prices for hundreds of products. The risk now is recession, but that is not the way the Fed sees it.
This is not the first time in U.S. history that policymakers have opted to make borrowing more expensive, risking recessions as a result. Such restrictive credit policies prevailed with disastrous effects in the 1830s, the 1870s, the 1890s, during the Great Depression from 1929 into 1939 and in the 1980s.
Make Ends Meet: Tips to Help with Finances During High Inflation
by Dawne Gee
Wave 3
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WAVE) – The Labor Department determined inflation slightly loosened its grip on the U.S. economy. Still many Americans are hanging on to every dollar and dime trying to make ends meet.
We had a chance to sit down with a financial planner and investment advisor to look at the top five financial problems families say are really weighing them down along with a few simple tips that may help. Just how far can we stretch a dollar?
Marcus Warren of Warren Wealth Management & Tax Planning works daily with families creating a financial strategy for graduates to retirees.
“What really should matter to folks and what we’re seeing matter to folks is their personal economy,” exclaimed Warren.
Latest Inflation Data Provides Potential for ‘Even Greater Upside’ in the Stock Market Rally
by Josh Schafer
Yahoo! Finance
After a rough start to 2024, the latest inflation data may very well mean more fuel for the current stock market rally.
“Inflation falling continues to be one of the primary factors behind the bull market in stocks,” Julian Emanuel, who leads Evercore ISI’s equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy, wrote in a note to clients.
On Sunday, Emanuel boosted his year-end price target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to 6,000 from 4,750. Emanuel cited the promising inflation path and the “early innings” of the AI trade when moving his year-end target to the highest on Wall Street.
The Deeper Dive: Why the Fed’s Inflation Fight is Far From Over
by David Haggith
GoldSeek
The two major factors that gave a tiny drop in CPI last week were oil and softening housing price increases, removing earlier pressure. Apart from the decline/softening in those two items, CPI would have risen. Since those were the major items where softening or downward pressures helped the Fed out and gave stock and bond markets a tingle in the seat of their pants, I’m going to lay out what is coming in those prices, and it is not likely good for the Fed’s fight.
Getting crude about CPI
Oil, I’ve been saying, is more likely to rise right away, as the summer travel season gets going, than to keep falling. That is elementary because rises in price during the northern hemisphere’s summer is oil’s common pattern because travel in the summer by jet and by car and by RV and by ship all increase in the nations with the largest populations on earth and the most travelers.
7th Grader: Trump Popular Among Young People Because Biden’s Inflation Raises Candy Prices
by Alana Mastrangelo
Breitbart.com
DETROIT, Michigan — A seventh grader told Breitbart News on Friday that former President Donald Trump is popular among young people because the inflation suffered under President Joe Biden’s administration is causing candy, such as Airheads, to cost more.
“My friends love Trump,” Joshua Adler told Breitbart News of his classmates in Wisconsin while attending Turning Point Action’s “The People’s Convention” in Detroit, Michigan.
After being asked if he believes Trump has become more popular among young people in recent years, Adler said, “Definitely,” before giving an anecdote about how he and his classmates have been personally hit with inflation under the Biden administration.
“When I went to the sports center in Eau Claire, the Airheads, now they’re 50 cents,” he said. “They used to be 25 [cents], now it’s 50 [cents].”