from Zero Hedge
Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World,
- The global economy is expected to enter a recession in 2025 due to a decline in the availability of crude oil, coal, and uranium relative to population.
- Government attempts to stimulate the economy through debt will lead to inflation rather than growth, as energy supplies are constrained.
- High interest rates, low energy prices, and a decline in industrial output will characterize the economic landscape in 2025.
As the world enters 2025, the critical issue we are facing is Peak Crude Oil, relative to population. Crude oil has fallen from as much as .46 gallons per person, which was quite common before the pandemic, to close to .42 gallons per person recently (Figure 1).
Inflation across Europe rose for a third consecutive month in December to reach an annualized 2.4%, according to statistics agency Eurostat.
People across America are feeling the sting of the rising cost of eggs in part being driven by the bird flu outbreak.
They have officially ruined breakfast. Once upon a time, breakfast was the least expensive meal of the day, but now everything has changed. Eggs, butter and coffee have all become extremely expensive, and there is no relief in sight in 2025. When I went to the grocery store on Friday, I spent about 45 dollars for just nine tubs of butter. I could hardly believe my eyes, but after doing some digging I discovered that five dollars for a pound of butter is very close to the national average at this stage.
Inflation has steadily cooled over the past two years, despite seeing a slight stall in October and November. Prices for items such as gasoline, used cars and energy have all declined accordingly. However, food prices continue to outpace inflation, increasing by 28% since 2019.
During an interview with C-SPAN on Friday, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) stated that people are still worrying about the high prices of groceries, seeing rent increases, and “can’t afford to buy a home.”
Fixed income markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025, but not by much. Short-term interest rates are expected to end 2025 close to 4%, that’s down from the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as of January 2025. This is after the Fed cut rates in December 2024.
Seattle Public Schools is seeing an alarming rise in the number of its students experiencing homelessness.
The coming years are going to be a bumpy ride for more reasons than appear in press chatter, talk shows and podcasts and bumpier than the chatterers and “experts” imagine.