by William J. Luther
The American Institute for Economic Research
Inflation ticked down further in April, according to new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, grew at a continuously compounding annual rate of 3.1 percent in April, down from 4.1 percent in the prior month. It has grown at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent over the last three months.
Inflation has typically exceeded the Fed’s average inflation target since January 2020, with thirty-eight of fifty-one (74.5 percent) months registering inflation above 2 percent. Prices today are 16.4 percent higher than they were in January 2020 and 9.0 percentage points higher than they would have been had they grown at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent over the period.