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Delta, Wells Fargo, Pepsi, Inflation Data, Fed Minutes, and More to Watch This Week
by Nicholas Jasinski
Barron’s
PepsiCo will publish results on Tuesday, followed by Delta Air Lines and Domino’s Pizza on Thursday. Then, on Friday, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, and Fastenal will all report.
On Thursday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the consumer price index for September. Economists’ consensus calls for a 2.3% increase from a year earlier, a slowdown of two-tenths of a percentage point from August. The BLS will release the producer price index on Friday morning.
On Wednesday afternoon, economists and Federal Reserve watchers will pay close attention to the minutes from the central bank’s September policy meeting. Close observers will focus on details of the debate over whether to lower interest rates by a quarter or a half of a percentage point.
U.S. Inflation is Set to Reassure a Labor Market-Focused Fed
by Vince Golle and Craig Stirling
BNN Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — US inflation probably moderated at the end of the third quarter, reassuring a Federal Reserve that’s shifting more of its policy focus toward shielding the labor market.
The consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in September, its smallest gain in three months. Compared with a year earlier, the CPI probably rose 2.3%, the sixth-straight slowdown and the tamest since early 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue its CPI report on Thursday.
The gauge excluding the volatile food and energy categories, which provides a better view of underlying inflation, is projected to rise 0.2% from a month earlier and 3.2% from September 2023.
War, Inflation and the Neutral Rate
from Zero Hedge
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
War, Inflation and the Neutral Rate
The probability that we see oil production targeted as part of the escalating fighting in the Middle East has increased. Academy’s General (ret.) Robeson, Rachel Washburn and Peter Tchir discuss this in a highly viewed webinar – Risk of Further Escalation in the Middle East. The webinar was very much driven by audience Q&A, which reflect the uncertainty managers are facing when dealing with the conflict. We highlight oil as disruptions in oil supply or production would have the largest impact on the global economy.
Academy also published a number of SITREPs which can be found here. (you may need t contact your Academy representative for access to all the reports). The most recent SITREP covers the Iranian Missile Attack. We also examine that incident and our outlook from a T-Report perspective in Fool Me Once, Shame on You, Fool me Twice, Shame on Me.
Mortgage Rates Explode, 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Monster Rate-Cut Hopes Doused, Inflation Fears Resurface: Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
The yield curve moved further toward un-inversion, but not the way it was hoped.
The Treasury yield curve un-inverted by another big step on Friday: The three-month yield has vacillated in the same range for the past 11 trading days following the drop after the monster rate cut. But longer yields surged, starting with the one-year yield, with rate cut expectations getting slashed, and with inflation fears returning. This nearly fixed position at the short end and surge in yields further out on the yield curve caused it to un-invert by another step, but not the way folks had hoped.
Labor Secretary to Voters Backing Trump Over Affordability: Must ‘Live in a World of Facts’, Inflation’s Down, There’s Gouging
by Ian Hanchett
Breitbart.com
On Friday’s “CNN News Central,” acting Labor Secretary Julie Su responded to people who say that they’re supporting 2024 Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump because they don’t trust his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris on the economy due to affordability issues by stating that “we have to live in a world of facts. By just about every single measure, what we are seeing with the economic recovery we have had since what we inherited from the last administration is a success story.” And that while prices are an issue, “The inflation rate is down to its pre-pandemic levels. And we have called on companies who’ve made record profits to make sure that they’re not taking advantage of the situation to say, oh, somehow, inflation was like a force of nature.”
Get Ready for the Return of Punishing Inflation
The US government has racked up $12 trillion in debt over the past four years. What will you do when it’s racking up $12 trillion every four months? Because that’s where we’re headed. Meanwhile, global financial conditions are as easy as they’ve ever been. What’s the emergency you ask? Good question…
by Dr. Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity
I’ve got to keep this write-up short this week. Paul starts with an incredible tale from a construction crew that took it upon itself to drive into the heart of the Helene damage to see if they could help.
They ended up pulling a family of six out of a ruined mud-filled house who had been trapped for 48 hours.
The fact that the government spends all of our money propping up ““markets”” and sending our tax dollars by the tens of billions overseas to kill people in the Middle East is becoming unavoidably obvious to more and more people.
Specifically, global liquidity has only been easier three other time in history and global money growth is up over $7.3 trillion over the past year.
Inflation is Coming Down, but Prices Won’t
[Ed. Note: Fun fact for very low IQ people…. Less inflation is NOT the same as deflation.]
by Kristin Schwab
Market Place
Matt Kliegman had been avoiding raising prices at Black Seed Bagels in New York City for years.
“You kind of hold on as long as you can,” said Kliegman, who finally raised prices 50 cents to $1 over the last few years as inflation surged. “And that came for many of us in this kind of period after COVID.”
Now, the economy is in a different place. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut signaled a turning point in this multi-year battle with inflation, and inflation continues to fall. That’s good news for consumers, but it’s also created some confusion as to why prices aren’t coming down along with interest rates.
To explain, let’s break down what goes into the cost of a bagel at Black Seed Bagels, which sells for around $2:
Private-Label Food Got More Popular Thanks to Inflation – But Now It’s Here to Stay
by Rosa Saba
BNN Bloomberg
Over the past few years, consumers have been buying more private-label products at the grocery store to save money — and the trend may be here to stay.
Amid renewed investment by grocers in their store-branded offerings, studies show many shoppers no longer see store brands as lower quality than name brands.
“For customers, the private brand is becoming not just a knockoff,” said Annie St-Laurent, senior director for Metro’s private-label portfolio.
“The growth is really good in private label.”
Grocers’ in-house brands — like Metro’s Irresistible and Selection, Loblaw’s No Name and President’s Choice, and Sobeys’ Compliments and Panache — tend to be priced lower than their name-brand competitors.
Struggling Fast-Food Chain Shutting Down Dozens of Restaurants
The popular restaurant chain closed a net total of 85 locations in its 2024 fiscal year.
by Kirk O’Neil
The Street
Restaurant chains have faced financial distress this year related to several factors, such as rising food prices caused by inflation, increased interest rates, and changes in consumer spending habits.
The harsh economic impact on restaurants has led several to close locations and sometimes file for bankruptcy.
[…] Struggling Pizza Hut operator EYM Pizza, which operates franchise locations in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin, filed its Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Texas on July 22 and hired brokerage National Franchise Sales to sell its 127 restaurants through its bankruptcy case.
The Irving, Texas-based pizza franchisee had been sued by Yum Brands’ (YUM) Pizza Hut after it stopped paying royalties when a forbearance period with its parent company ended.
Services Sector Expansion Accelerates to Fastest Pace Since 2023
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
The U.S. services sector expanded in September at the fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by a flurry of orders and stronger business activity.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services rose 3.4 points to 54.9 last month, data released Thursday showed. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
The reading exceeded even the most bullish estimates from Wall Street economists.
The measure of orders rose 6.4 points, the most since the start of 2023. The output gauge rose 6.6 points to 59.9 but the employment metric slipped, the first contraction in three months.
The prices-paid index climbed 2.1 points to 59.4, indicating rising inflationary pressures.