by Liz Capo McCormick and Ye Xie
Yahoo! Finance
Most rates slid to their lowest since March, with those on two-year debt — more sensitive than longer maturities to changes in the Fed’s policy outlook — sinking as much as 13 basis points to 4.486%. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. responded by pulling forward their forecast for the start of Fed easing to September from November, and traders fully priced in a September cut for the first time in months.
The odds of a September rate cut jumped from around 70% before the data. For all of 2024, the contracts imply 60 basis points easing — at least two quarter-point moves — from about 49 basis points earlier.
“The data makes a September cut a slam dunk now,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC. “You are going to get three cuts this year — September, November and December — and the market is starting to price that.”