Short-Term Treasury Market Walks Away From Rate-Cut Mania, Inflation Has Upper Hand

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

One-year yield rose to 5.05%, highest since December 12.

From mid-October through the end of January, the 6-month Treasury yield had dropped by about 43 basis points, from around 5.58% to 5.15% (green box in the chart below). This means roughly, that at the end of January, the 6-month yield – a calculated composite representing securities with about six months left before they mature – saw two rate cuts within its six-month window, spread over the three FOMC rate announcements on March 20, May 1, and June 12. So roughly two rate cuts by the June meeting.

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