by Simon Moore
Forbes
The next Consumer Price Index release for August is expected to show further disinflation. That may support a cut in interest rates, with markets now debating the size of any cut rather than whether it will happen. With recent softness in jobs data and negative revisions to prior reports, the risks to unemployment may be gaining more of the Federal Open Market Committee’s attention than inflation risks.
August CPI Release Timing And Forecasts
The August CPI release is scheduled for 8:30 am E.T. on September 11. The prior release for July showed a 0.2% monthly increase with a 2.9% annual increase. That compares to the FOMC’s 2% inflation target. Nowcast forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggest that August CPI will come in at 0.23% for August or at 0.26% for core inflation, removing food and energy price moves. That would translate to an annual inflation rate of 2.6% and core inflation running higher at 3.2%. Forecasting site Kalshi is currently estimating headline inflation at 2.5%.