by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Core services inflation is the biggie, and it’s going the wrong way. The Fed is already talking down the pace of rate cuts.
Inflation has been in services and is still in services, it has become sticky in services, and recently it has been re-accelerating in services. Services dominate consumer spending. And durable goods prices rose for the second month in a row, after big drops. But gasoline prices continued to plunge, and food prices ticked up just a little, according to the PCE price index by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. This is the data the Fed prioritizes as yardstick for its 2% inflation target.
Three of the four major metrics accelerated in October even on a year-over-year basis: the overall PCE price index to +2.3% (blue), the “Core” PCE price index to +2.8%, (red), and the “Core Services” PCE price index to +3.9% (gold), while the durable goods PCE Price index started rising from the ashes and became less negative (green).