With inflation still above the Fed’s target, the last mile is proving stubborn.
by Sarah Hansen
Morningstar Advisor
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Forecasts for the November Consumer Price Index report find that inflation remained relatively steady last month. Price pressures have eased dramatically since peaking in the summer of 2022, but progress is slowing significantly as the inflation rate approaches the Federal Reserve’s target.
Overall, economists expect that consumer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. That would mean the annual inflation rate rose slightly to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. Economists expect the core measure of inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 0.28% in November, which would keep the annual rate steady at 3.3%.
“We actually haven’t seen a tremendous amount of change in the data over the last month,” says Josh Hirt, senior US economist at Vanguard. He adds that the overall inflation rate remains rangebound at 2.5%-3.0%.