New York Fed’s Measure of “Inflation Persistence” Nixes Friday’s Idea that YoY PCE Inflation Cooled, Using Same Data

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

The game of inflation Whack-A-Mole: price pressures shifted from housing to non-housing services and core goods.

Just briefly here because it’s an interesting twist by the New York Fed on Friday’s PCE inflation reading: it nixes the idea that year-over-year PCE inflation is cooling.

Back in April 2022, when the Fed’s favored inflation measure, the PCE price index, was surging towards its June 2022 high of 7.2% year-over-year, researchers at the New York Fed came out with a new inflation measure that’s based on the data in the PCE price index, but tries to show inflation’s “persistence.” They did this by aggregating the PCE components differently. And they called it Multivariate Core Trend inflation (MCT inflation).

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