Ray Dalio warns that Donald Trump’s tariff policies could lead to global stagflation and significantly alter U.S.- China trade relations. Dalio’s analysis highlights the “first-order” effects of tariffs, which can generate revenue but also reduce global production efficiencies.
by Jamie Redman
Bitcoin.com
Dalio Backs Trump’s Tariff Revenue Claim
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning about the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly unveiled tariff policies. Dalio stated that the tariff regime could lead to a surge in global stagflation and significantly reshape U.S.- China trade relations.
Dalio’s analysis, presented in a recent commentary, breaks down the “first-order” effects of tariffs. He notes that tariffs can generate revenue for the imposing country while reducing global production efficiencies. This perspective aligns with Trump’s Liberation Day speech, where he reiterated claims that revenues from tariffs made the U.S. wealthy before the introduction of income tax in 1913.
The Trump administration, by imposing reciprocal tariffs on both allies and adversaries, is confident that this measure, combined with spending cuts, will quickly transform the country’s deficit into a surplus.