The US dollar is expected to remain somewhat soft, but not necessarily experience a sharp disorderly decline, said Claudio Irigoyen, head of global economics research at BofA Global Research. In a conversation with Himadri Buch, New York-based Irigoyen shared his views on the US dollar outlook, treasury yields, the fiscal bill and why India continues to stand out in the emerging markets pack. Edited excerpts:
by Himadri Buch, ET Bureau
Economic Times
The US treasury yields have been rising while the US dollar is struggling to stay steady. Is there a crisis of confidence?
What we are witnessing is probably a recalibration of expectations in response to a confluence of fiscal and policy uncertainties. The uncertainty is certainly weighing on consumer and business sentiment, prompting a natural wait-and-watch approach among companies, particularly about investment decisions. However, this hesitation, when paired with the broader fiscal gap, is prompting markets to demand a higher risk premium on US assets. That is leading to a sharp rise in treasury yields. At the same time, global investors, who had been heavily overweight on US assets and underweight on European assets, have begun rebalancing their portfolios.