Fed’s Wait-and-See On Rate Cuts Supported by Worst 6-Month “Core” & “Core Services” PCE Inflation Since Mid-2023

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

Not just housing, but also other core services. However, durable goods inflation is back to normal.

The Fed’s favored “core” PCE price index, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy, jumped by 3.0% annualized in April from March (not annualized, 0.249%), well above the Fed’s target of 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. But it was a smaller increase than in the prior three months, though far hotter than in late 2023 (blue in the chart).

The six-month annualized core PCE price index, which irons out most of the erratic monthly squiggles, and which Powell cites a lot, accelerated to 3.2%, the worst increase since July last year (red).

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