The inflation surge followed a unique disruption to the global economy, but it still offers important lessons for central banks
by Jorge Alvarez, Alberto Musso, Jean-Marc Natal, Sebastian Wende
IMF
Pandemic lockdowns initially tilted demand away from services and toward goods. But this came at a time when unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted demand, and many firms were not able to ramp up production fast enough, resulting in mismatches between supply and demand and rising prices in some sectors.
For example, ports were stretched to or beyond their capacity, partly due to pandemic-related staffing shortages, so as demand for goods surged, this resulted in backorders. When economies reopened, demand for services came roaring back and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity prices soaring, in turn pushing global inflation to its highest level since the 1970s.