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Is the U.S. Suffering From Seasonal Inflation Disorder?

February 19, 2025

January’s bad data needs further scrutiny; plus, Bessent’s bet bombs

by Chris Giles
FT

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell appeared to have two objectives when giving evidence to Congress last week. Steer clear of politics and do not upset the president. He largely succeeded.

On the day of a poor set of US consumer price inflation data for January, Powell said the Fed had made “great progress” in getting inflation down but had not quite met its goals. He was quite right about the former, with US CPI inflation down from 9 per cent in June 2022 to 2.4 per cent in September 2024, but the latest data was bad.

US headline CPI inflation rose in January on a 12-month, six-month, three-month and one-month basis and almost all measures of core inflation were higher in January than in December over every time period.

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