from ReasonTV
How Much Purchasing Power Will We Have in the Next Five Years?
by Nicholas Rizzo
MoneyWise
The last three years have seen an average annual inflation of 5.6%, the highest three year average inflation rate since the early 1980s recession.
With this in mind, we looked at data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and Redfin to find out how far salaries have kept up with inflation over the last five years, and how much money we will have in our pockets in the next five years if things carry on in the same direction.
Experts: What is Causing Food Prices to Spike Around the World?
by Giuliana Viglione
Carbon Brief
Spiking food prices have made headlines around the world this year, from eggs in the US to vegetables in India.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index has been slowly increasing over the past six months following declines over much of 2023.
For example, the price of orange juice concentrate in the US was 42% higher in April than it was a year ago, while the price of fresh orange juice in the UK has risen 25% over the last year.
In Greece, the price of olive oil rose by nearly 30% over 2023 and by more than 63% in April of this year.
No single factor alone can explain the rising prices.
Traders Brace for Inflation Data as U.S. Dollar Holds Steady
by Finimize Newsroom
Finimize
What’s going on here?
The US dollar held steady at 105.84 on June 24, 2024, as traders eagerly awaited upcoming US inflation data, which could sway future interest rate decisions.
What does this mean?
With the Dollar Index flirting with near eight-week highs, all eyes are on Friday’s release of the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists predict a slowdown to 2.6% annual growth for the PCE index in May, which could enhance the likelihood of an interest rate cut as early as September. Despite potential tightening pressures from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since April. Meanwhile, currency strategists point to a slowdown in the US economy and softer core inflation readings as factors that could lead the Fed to start reducing policy rates. Key geopolitical events, including the first US presidential debate and the French election, are also set to impact global markets.
Debate Focus Group: Voters Concerned About Biden’s Health, Inflation, Open Borders
by Wendell Husebo
Breitbart.com
Many independent voters will watch the presidential debate next week for answers on President Joe Biden’s health, inflation, and open borders, a Reuters focus group found Thursday.
The debate is scheduled to be a highly watched first rematch between the two candidates since Biden took control of the federal government. Under Biden’s regime prices soared about 20 percent across the board, and over 1.7 million known “gotaways,” illegal immigrants who evaded Border Patrol, entered the country, according to Congress.
Though the debate’s rules favor Biden — as the Biden camp reportedly acknowledges — voters will watch to see if Biden provides cogent answers about the top issues of soaring costs and seemingly endless migration, focus group members said.
The Fed is Getting Ready to Torch the Dollar
We’ve come to the end of the road. There’s no more ‘can-kicking’ to be done. The US is now in the exponential blow-off phase of fiscal irresponsibility and the Fed is out of options. Save the Dollar or save the Treasury bond market. The BRICS have long-since figured this out. Now it’s time for Western investors to catch on.
by Dr. Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity
In this week’s episode Paul and I cover the Fed’s predicament. They can only do one of two things:
- Save the bond market
- Save the dollar.
Naturally, they are going to save the bond market which means they are going to ‘toast the dollar’ which means lots more inflation is on the way.
People who do not see this coming, and who do not take steps to protect their portfolios, are going to face a very difficult future.
Meanwhile, the stock ““market”” appears to have gone insane again, either due to those mysterious “animal spirits” or because the Fed is heavily manipulating it. Either way, it makes no fundamental sense at the present.
Where Investors Should Put Their Money if Higher Inflation Becomes Normal
Noah Solomon: Several things will make it challenging for inflation to be as well-behaved as it has been in decades past
by Noah Solomon
Financial Post
The past few decades have been largely defined by low inflation, declining rates and a highly favourable investment environment, but conditions will be markedly different going forward and this will have significant repercussions for portfolios.
This disinflationary, ultra-low-rate backdrop in large part resulted from China’s rapid industrialization and growth. Specifically, the integration of hundreds of millions of participants into the global pool of labour represents a colossally positive supply side shock that served to keep inflation at previously unthinkably well-tamed levels in the face of record low rates.
More “Transitory” Inflation On the Way… Look at What is Skyrocketing
from King World News
More “transitory” inflation is on the way. Look at what is skyrocketing…
Debts & Deficits Matter
June 20 (King World News) – Peter Boockvar: With the Congressional Budget Office raising its fiscal 2024 deficit estimate to almost $2 trillion I believe we are sooner rather than later going to resolve the debate over whether ever rising debts and deficits matter for the direction of borrowing costs. The danger though now is that part of the rising estimates is due to higher interest rates. I get the question all the time as to when will DC care which would result in some action to slow the pace of rising debts and deficits and my only answer is when the bond market forces them to and I’ll define that as a 6% 10 yr note yield. That would create some shock to the system I’m guessing that could create some crisis where something might get done.
Gold Can Help Hedge Inflation Risk of Republican Sweep, Says Goldman Sachs
by Steve Goldstein
Market Watch
Their view is that a Republican sweep in presidential and congressional elections would present the biggest risks to inflation and bond returns, stemming from higher import tariffs; slower immigration; tighter sanctions on Iranian oil; lower taxes; and, in Goldman’s phrasing, “stronger attempts to influence Fed policy.”
[…] Donald Trump, the former president who is on his way to a third straight Republican presidential nod, has suggested replacing income taxes with tariffs.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump allies have drawn up plans to blunt the Federal Reserve’s independence, though the campaign has not confirmed it has any such plans.
Poll: ‘Inflation and Economy’ Top Priority for Americans, Abortion Last
by Hannah Bleau
Breitbart.com
“Inflation and the economy” is standing as the top priority for Americans, while abortion is coming in last, a June Cygnal survey found.
The survey asked respondents to identify their top priority, and a plurality, 27.9 percent, chose inflation and the economy as their top priority. Illegal immigration — another strong suit of former President Donald Trump — emerged as the second-most important issue, with 19.7 percent of respondents choosing that.
“Threats to democracy” came in third place, with 15.3 percent, but all other issues came in the single digits. Just 7.8 percent chose healthcare as a top priority, followed by national security (6.4 percent), climate change (5.9 percent), gun control (5.8 percent), crime and public safety (5.4 percent), and abortion (4.1 percent). Another 1.7 percent were unsure of their top priority.
Democrats Play the Blame Game On Rent Inflation
by Louis Rouanet
The American Institute for Economic Research
Inflation is the surest way to trigger a Pavlovian response from politicians, whereby they blame monopolists, middlemen, greedy entrepreneurs, profiteers, and price gougers. In 1793, French Revolutionaries fueled inflation by running persistent deficits that they monetized. Their response was to instill fear — courtesy of the guillotine — by blaming productive French citizens for being greedy. Luckily, the guillotine has long been ditched, but the common tropes used by the Biden administration and its allied members of Congress to deflect blame for inflation have not.
While the money supply has increased by more than 30 percent since 2020, and the Federal government deficit is above 5 percent of national income with no end in sight, Democrats have preferred to blame the private sector. Their most recent target is RealPage, a US software provider that analyzes supply and demand dynamics in the rental real estate market to help landlords price their properties.