from Yahoo Finance
Workers’ Paychecks Grew Faster in the First Quarter, a Possible Concern for the Fed
by Christoph Rauwald
Yahoo! Finance
Compensation as measured by the government’s Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% in the January-March quarter, up from a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, compensation growth was 4.2%, the same as the previous quarter.
The increase in wages and benefits is good for employees, to be sure, but could add to concerns at the Fed that inflation may remain too high in the coming months. The Fed is expected to keep its key short-term rate unchanged after its latest policy meeting concludes Wednesday.
Man Who Oversees $150 Billion Just Warned We May See Terrifying Hyperinflation
from King World News
Today the man who oversees $150 billion warned King Word News that we may see terrifying hyperinflation.
May 1 (King World News) – Rob Arnott, Chairman of Research Affiliates: “Weimar Germany had hyperinflation — had the Deutschmark catastrophically collapse. And overnight they moved back to a gold standard. And overnight the entire hyperinflation disappeared. So inflation and hyperinflation are always a policy choice…
Five Areas Where Inflation is Highest
Fuel and electricity are among the areas where inflation has been the biggest pain for Americans.
by Wayne Duggan
US News
For more than three years, readings from the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI, have been well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target of 2%. Americans have likely noticed prices surging for goods and services ranging from groceries to insurance to housing to transportation. Unfortunately, inflation has hit certain industries and commodities harder than others.
The U.S. Labor Department breaks down the monthly CPI reading into several subcategories. Here’s a look at the five subcategories that have averaged the highest annual inflation rates over the past three years and some public companies that have been impacted by rising prices.
Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation
by Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff, and Pierre Yared
CEPR
Despite the large surge in inflation across advanced economies since 2021, long-term expectations are mostly in line with central bank targets. However, this column argues that the factors which facilitated low average inflation for decades have started to reverse. These include globalisation, de-unionisation, and a deepening of the Washington consensus including especially fiscal restraint. Using a theoretical model, supported by broad empirical evidence on changing fundamentals, it demonstrates the relationship between economic and political factors, long-run inflation, and transitions between steady states. The growing tension between central banks and democratically elected politicians can make low and stable inflation more difficult to achieve in the future, with negative consequences for economic activity.
ECB’s Guindos Says Inflation Outlook Faces ‘Substantial Risks’
by Andrew Langley
BNN Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank faces significant dangers to achieving its inflation goal, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos, who cited factors that could pull prices too far in either direction.
“While we expect inflation to return to our 2% target next year, the outlook is surrounded by substantial risks,” the Spanish official said Monday. “The geopolitical situation, especially in the Middle East, poses a particular upside risk to inflation.”
Among other such factors, he listed corporate profit margins and upward pressure on salaries in the euro area. Downside risks include a stronger-than-anticipated dampening impact of monetary policy on demand, or an unexpected worsening of the global economic backdrop, Guindos said in London.
The Fed’s Game of “Make Believe” Comes to an End
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
It’s barely been a year since the 2023 bank crisis in which several large banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, failed.
At the time, I wrote that the bank failures weren’t over, and that there would be more.
But it’s been quiet for most of the last year; the banking system has been pretty calm thanks in large part to an emergency program that the Federal Reserve created to bail out other troubled banks.
They called it the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), and it essentially expired a few weeks ago. In other words, no more emergency lending to troubled banks.
Why the Fed Looks Likely to Scramble Back to a Hawkish Stance
With inflation looking sticky, where does the Fed go now?
by Greg Robb
Market Watch
His blunt, hawkish remarks now seem like a distant memory. Over the past six months, Powell and his colleagues have been leaning dovish, strongly hinting they were preparing to cut interest rates.
“They kind of came out and did a victory lap a little too soon,” said Ellen Meade, a former top Fed staffer and now an economics professor at Duke University.
That’s likely going to change this week, economists said.
White House On PCE Inflation Increase: ‘Nice to Hit the Expectations’ – Expect ‘Bumpy Path Down’ to Target Rate
by Ian Hanchett
Breitbart.com
On Friday’s broadcast of Bloomberg’s “Balance of Power,” White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein reacted to the March PCE report that showed the yearly PCE inflation rate increasing with the annual core rate holding steady along with 0.3% monthly growth in both overall and core PCE, the same as it was in February, by stating that “It was nice to hit the expectations number for the PCE, both headline and core, this morning.” And said that “we expect inflation to continue a bumpy path down towards target.”
Bernstein stated that improvements in consumer sentiment have “tracked some of the improvements that we saw in inflation, especially the disinflation in the latter half of last year. Now, look, inflation is still down 60% from its peak. It was nice to hit the expectations number for the PCE, both headline and core, this morning.”
Social Security Isn’t Keeping Up with Inflation. That Could Weaken Biden’s Support Among Some Seniors
by Tami Luhby
CNN
Not long ago, senior citizens got the two biggest annual increases in their monthly Social Security checks that most had ever seen. But for many of them, the adjustments still weren’t enough to cope with the runaway inflation of earlier this decade and the continued high prices for food, housing, utilities and other necessities.
That’s forcing more of them to spend their emergency savings, carry debt on credit cards or apply for assistance programs, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan public education and advocacy group.
Stagflation is Back, Gold Premiums Indicate Tightness, and Expanding Overton Windows Worry ‘Them’
What a huge week for news and the markets. Big money seems to be buying gold, high premiums say so. The yen is flashing danger signals, and its weakness is surprisingly correlated with the introduction of the very unsafe jab. This is your weekly wrap-up of everything that caught my eye.
by Dave Fairtex
Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity
If we combine the Biden-Handler massive cap gains tax increase and the impending wealth tax on bit”coin” and other assets (“mixers” are “money laundering” – unlike the Oligarchy’s Ukraine money laundering op), rising long rates leading to bank failures – what is the general intent? Deliberate impoverishment and elimination of agency via some sort of near-term Great Reset. No cows, no milk, no chickens (BIRD FLU!), no gardens (carbon!), no health (forced six-dozen-shot chronic-disease-and-death-vaxes), no inheritance, no savings or wealth = You Will Die Young and Destitute. The scheduling of the tax pre-“election” doesn’t make any sense. Maybe – there won’t be an election? Maybe “they” have successfully infiltrated Orangeville; his DeathVax stance suggests this could be true. Or maybe “they” are on a no-changes timeline with a “global” ticking clock – there is no choice. Polar shift? “Return of the Elohim?” I don’t know. As Chris said using the “Rules for Rulers” framing, inflicting a wealth tax on the donor class makes no sense, so I assume something not yet visible is the cause.