from PalmBeachPost
The End of Economic Growth: Energy Shortages Drive Global Downturn
from Zero Hedge
Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World,
- The global economy is expected to enter a recession in 2025 due to a decline in the availability of crude oil, coal, and uranium relative to population.
- Government attempts to stimulate the economy through debt will lead to inflation rather than growth, as energy supplies are constrained.
- High interest rates, low energy prices, and a decline in industrial output will characterize the economic landscape in 2025.
As the world enters 2025, the critical issue we are facing is Peak Crude Oil, relative to population. Crude oil has fallen from as much as .46 gallons per person, which was quite common before the pandemic, to close to .42 gallons per person recently (Figure 1).
Europe’s Inflation Rate Rose 2.4% in December
by Baystreet Staff
Bay Street
Inflation across Europe rose for a third consecutive month in December to reach an annualized 2.4%, according to statistics agency Eurostat.
The December reading was in line with the consensus forecasts of economists polled by the Reuters news agency and marked an increase from 2.2% in November.
Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.7% for a fourth month, also meeting economists’ expectations. However, services inflation increased to 4% from 3.9%.
The latest rise in consumer prices will be closely watched by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to lower interest rates from 3% to 2% throughout this year.
Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, hit a higher-than-expected 2.9% in December. At the same time, inflation in France came in at 1.8%, below forecasts calling for a 1.9% rise.
Popular Seattle “Safe Space” Waffle Shop Forced to Close Due to Inflation and New $20 Minimum Wage
from Zero Hedge
A waffle shop in Seattle is being forced to close down over the city’s new $20 per hour minimum wage law, according to a new report by the New York Post.
The owner of Bebop Waffle Shop said she was forced to close after the city’s new $20.76 minimum wage law took effect on New Year’s Day.
Owner Corina Luckenbach told the Post:
“I’ve cried every day.”
Luckenbach, who founded Bebop over a decade ago after moving from New York to Seattle, said inflation-driven food costs and reduced foot traffic due to remote work had already strained her business. The minimum wage hike was the final blow.
Egg Prices to Record-Breaking Heights
by Amy Furr
Breitbart.com
People across America are feeling the sting of the rising cost of eggs in part being driven by the bird flu outbreak.
In October, Vice President-elect Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) pointed to the skyrocketing price of eggs as evidence of President Joe Biden (D) and Vice President Kamala Harris’s (D) economic policies, per Breitbart News.
“Eggs, when Kamala Harris took office, were short of $1.50 a dozen. Now, a dozen eggs will cost you around $4, thanks to Kamala Harris’ inflationary policies,” he said.
Thanks to Years of Inflation, the Price of Breakfast in America is Now Obscene
by Michael Snyder
The Economic Collapse Blog
They have officially ruined breakfast. Once upon a time, breakfast was the least expensive meal of the day, but now everything has changed. Eggs, butter and coffee have all become extremely expensive, and there is no relief in sight in 2025. When I went to the grocery store on Friday, I spent about 45 dollars for just nine tubs of butter. I could hardly believe my eyes, but after doing some digging I discovered that five dollars for a pound of butter is very close to the national average at this stage.
Of course in some areas it is even more expensive. During an exchange on MSNBC’s Morning Joe program, Joe Scarborough was astounded to learn that the price of butter has reached 7 dollars in some stores in his area…
Experts Say High Food Prices Are Here to Stay. Here’s Why.
by Juhohn Lee
CNBC.com
Inflation has steadily cooled over the past two years, despite seeing a slight stall in October and November. Prices for items such as gasoline, used cars and energy have all declined accordingly. However, food prices continue to outpace inflation, increasing by 28% since 2019.
More than 85% of consumers report feeling frustrated with rising grocery prices, and over a third say they have resorted to buying fewer items to save money, according to a 2024 survey by RR Donnelley.
However, experts say high food prices are here to stay.
“Once food price goes up, it tends to stay up,” said Claudia Sahm, a chief economist at New Century Advisors. “The inflation may come back down, so you don’t see the big price increases. But outside of widespread depression, we don’t tend to see prices falling across the board.”
Dingell: People Are Still Worried About Grocery Bills, Have Rising Rent, Can’t Buy Home
by Ian Hanchett
Breitbart.com
During an interview with C-SPAN on Friday, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) stated that people are still worrying about the high prices of groceries, seeing rent increases, and “can’t afford to buy a home.”
Dingell stated, “I go to Kroger on Sunday mornings. I have a routine. And when I’m in that — in the store, people know I’m going to be there. They come and talk to me about what — the price of eggs is what’s really, I think has not still quieted down, how they’re worried about their grocery bills, about people that can’t afford to buy a home. The rent’s going up, everyday issues that matter to working men and women across the country.”
She further stated, “We’ve got to listen and show them how we’re addressing those issues.”
Here’s the Fed’s 2025 Meeting Schedule and What to Expect for Interest Rates
by Simon Moore
Forbes
Fixed income markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025, but not by much. Short-term interest rates are expected to end 2025 close to 4%, that’s down from the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as of January 2025. This is after the Fed cut rates in December 2024.
This forecast assumes that the U.S. economy continues to grow; unemployment remains slightly above 4%; and inflation ends the year close to 2.5%. These projections were the median forecasts of Federal Open Market Committee policymakers in December 2024. If the economy performs differently than these expectations, then the interest rate outlook will evolve too.
Seattle Public Schools Sees Alarming 20% Spike in Student Homelessness After 30% Rise Last Year
from Zero Hedge
Seattle Public Schools is seeing an alarming rise in the number of its students experiencing homelessness.
As of October, the district reported 2,235 students experiencing homelessness since the school year began, a nearly 20% increase from last year’s 30% rise, KUOW/NPR reported.
Homelessness has reached record levels nationwide, according to a recent HUD report. In Washington state, over 41,000 students experienced homelessness during the 2023-24 school year, a nearly 15% increase.
Jenny Allen, a McKinney-Vento support worker in Seattle, said rising costs and limited affordable housing are straining families, while the district has seen a rise in immigrants and refugees, particularly from South America.
The Inflation Ruination to Come
All forecasts are useless amid a global financial structure of unstable criticality in which any snowflake can bring an avalanche
by Jeffrey Race
Asia Times
The coming years are going to be a bumpy ride for more reasons than appear in press chatter, talk shows and podcasts and bumpier than the chatterers and “experts” imagine.
Global finances are at an epochal turn. The world has been living on capital (energy, water, land) and credit for many, many decades and that has stopped.
Economists blithely call it “The Great Moderation” and congratulate themselves. Highly skilled in their discipline, they are innocent of history and other kinds of insight essential to comprehending today’s situation.
With their narrow understanding, American economists just told their leaders to max the national credit card, possible once President Nixon had in 1971 cut the dollar’s link to gold, theretofore the sole restraint keeping American politicians and public modestly responsible.