from Fox Business
U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to Four-Year Low as Inflation Concerns Rise
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
Consumer confidence plunged for the fourth consecutive month in March, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index falling 7.2 points to 92.9, its lowest level since January 2021. Even more troubling, the Expectations Index — a gauge of how consumers view future income, business, and labor market conditions — plummeted to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years.
The sharp drop in expectations is seen as a critical signal of recession risk. Historically, an Expectations Index reading below 80 has often been associated with recessions. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, noted that consumers’ optimism about future income, which had remained resilient, “largely vanished” this month.
The Latest Food Price Spike and the Gold Bull Market
from King World News
Here is a look at the latest food price spike and the gold bull market.
March 25 (King World News) – Below is a fascinating chart from CNBC:
These are the exact kind of price spikes seen in commodities in the 1970s
We have also seen these types of spikes in commodities during the massive inflation post-COVID. Inflation was unleashed in the 1970s when the US went off the Gold Standard. Inflation was unleashed this time around through massive money printing. Gold has been the primary beneficiary, just like the 1970s, soaring above $3,050. Silver will be unleashed to new all-time highs soon. For now, continue to accumulate physical silver, which is extremely undervalued vs the price of gold.
Allianz Life Study Finds Inflation and Tariffs Increasingly Worrying Americans
Concern about an upcoming market crash increased in the first part of 2025.
by Sarah Hauer
Business Wire
KEY FINDINGS:
– 71% expect inflation will get worse over the next 12 months
– 75% worry that new tariffs will increase their cost of living expenses
– 51% worry that another big market crash is on the horizon
MINNEAPOLIS–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Americans are increasingly worried about inflation and new tariffs increasing their cost of living, according to the 2025 Q1 Quarterly Market Perceptions Study* from Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America (Allianz Life).
Most Americans are expecting inflation to get worse with 71% saying they expect inflation will get worse over the next 12 months. This is up from 60% at the end of 2024. Three in four (75%) worry that new tariffs will increase their cost of living expenses.
Fed’s Kugler: Uptick in Goods Inflation ‘Unhelpful’
by Reuters
Reuters.com
March 25 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday, but progress on bringing inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target has slowed since last summer and the uptick in goods inflation seen in the latest data is “unhelpful.”
The recent surge in inflation expectations reflected in surveys of American consumers also warrants close attention, Kugler said in remarks prepared for a U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce event in Washington.
Based on readings of the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index released earlier this month, Kugler said it is estimated that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index the Fed uses to guide its 2% target climbed at a 2.5% pace year-over-year in February, the same as in January.
The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge and Tariff Talk: What to Know This Week
by Josh Schafer
Yahoo! Finance
Stocks struggled to gain steam last week as uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff plans continued to loom over markets.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) popped about 0.5% while the Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI) rose more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added nearly 0.2%.
In the week ahead, a reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will highlight the economic releases. Updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, consumer confidence, and the final reading of fourth quarter economic growth are also expected.
On the corporate front, quarterly results from Dollar Tree (DLTR), Lululemon (LULU), and KB Home (KBH) will headline a subdued slate of scheduled financial updates.
What to Expect From Friday’s Report On Inflation
According to PCE, inflation likely stayed stubborn in February, in contrast to a different measure that showed it decelerating.
by Diccon Hyatt
Investopedia
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Inflation was pretty tame in February—or was it? A report on inflation scheduled for Friday could throw some cold water on the idea that consumer price increases are significantly decelerating.
A report on Personal Consumption Expenditures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to show the cost of living rose 2.5% over the last 12 months, the same annual rate as in January, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The forecast calls for “core” inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, to have risen 2.7% over the year in February, up from 2.6% in January.
If the forecasts are on target, the PCE inflation measure would tell a different story than the Consumer Price Index, a different official inflation figure. That measure showed price increases decelerated faster than expected in February, fueling optimism that the post-pandemic bubble of high inflation is slowly but surely deflating.
Shell-Shocked! Why Eggs – And Their Rising Price – Are an American Obsession
Trump used their price as a campaign issue but has been unable to stop costs rising. Why do eggs matter so much?
by Adam Gabbatt
The Guardian
As the Trump economy continues to perform with all the robustness and reliability of a Tesla Cybertruck, one thing, above anything else, has come to be seen as a measure of how the US is faring: the humble egg.
The egg holds a uniquely central place in American culture, egg experts say, and the soaring price in recent months, largely due to a bird flu outbreak, has been discussed and debated across the country.
About 30 million chickens have been culled due to the disease, making a mockery of Donald Trump’s campaign trail promises to reduce grocery prices. Eggs cost 59% more in February compared with a year earlier, and while the price has declined in recent days, the government has predicted egg costs will inch back up. But the egg focus raises the question: why has the egg become the de facto barometer for economic success in the US?
This High-Risk Gamble is Putting the Future of the U.S. Economy at Stake
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
Russian-born Lydia Lopokova was not happy with her accommodations at the posh Mount Washington Hotel.
The world-famous former ballerina complained that, in room 219, “the taps run all day, the windows do not close or open, the pipes mend and unmend.” Not to mention the hotel pool was absolutely frigid, even for someone who had grown up in frosty Saint Petersburg.
Lopokova coped by practicing her ballet moves late in the evening– the only time when the crisp New Hampshire mountain air made it tolerable enough to exercise.
But perhaps she was just being petty; US Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau was staying right below her in room 119… and Lopokova’s constant grande jetes and pirouettes reportedly kept him awake all night.
Correction Week, High Gold, Steady Fed
by David Chapman
GoldSeek
Correction week. Stocks bounced back, albeit small. The precious metals were mixed on the week. Gold made new all-time highs again and the gold stocks made new 52-week highs but by week’s end most other precious metals were down except for copper. Is it suggesting a temporary top for gold and the precious metals? The Fed as expected held interest rates steady but they did ease up on quantitative tightening. Inflation eased but it is still elevated while there are signs the economy is slowing it is not yet full blown. It does, however, suggest we could be entering a period of stagflation. Irrespective the labour market is not as yet slowing to any great extent. Layoffs and government firings but the weekly claims are relatively steady. Severance packages? Lawsuits slowing things?
The chaos continues south of the border now with attacks against the judiciary raising the possibility of a constitutional crisis. That in turn would most likely be negative for markets and positive for gold. Tourists are turning away from the U.S. thanks to the chaos and a tightening border. Our chart of the week (page 7) centres on gold vs. stock indices.
What a Trumped-Up Fed Means for the Global Economy
While the Fed’s core duties remain off-limits to Trump’s regulatory overhaul, the administration clearly wants to subordinate the central bank to its political objectives.
by Alexander W. Salter
The Daily Economy
President Trump is bringing federal agencies to heel. Is the Federal Reserve next?
Our nation’s central bank jealously guards its independence from politics. Given its inflation-fighting and financial stability-preserving mandates, that might seem like a good thing. You don’t need a PhD in economics to see how political meddling in monetary policy or bank regulation could create economic chaos.
Yet Fed independence has been greatly overstated. Congress sets the Fed’s goals: it has tasked the Fed with delivering maximum employment and stable prices. Top Fed policymakers are selected by the president and approved by the Senate. Constitutionally, the Fed can’t be separated from politics. Elected officials have the last word. Our only choice is whether that authority is exercised responsibly.