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Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric Better Than Expected as Wavering Over Interest Rate Cuts Spooks Markets

Inflation was more manageable than expected in November, according to the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of price changes, as sticky inflation douses investors and borrowers’ hopes of much lower interest rates in 2025.

by Derek Saul
Forbes

Key Facts

– The core personal consumption expenditures index rose 2.8% year-over-year, according to the metric released Friday morning by the Commerce Department, matching October’s reading.

– The reading of core PCE, which tracks how much Americans spent on goods and services outside of more price-volatile food and energy categories, is better than median economist forecasts of 2.9%, according to Dow Jones data.

– Headline PCE inflation came in at 2.4%, also lower than estimates of 2.5%, but still up from October’s 2.3%.

Continue Reading at Forbes.com…

Base Metals Gain Ground as Dollar Weakens and Inflation Cools

by Finimize Newsroom
Finimize

What’s going on here?

Base metals are enjoying a gleam in prices as recent US dollar dips and softer inflation numbers boost their appeal.

What does this mean?

The US Commerce Department’s latest inflation figures suggest a potential easing from the Federal Reserve next year. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index inched up just 0.1% in November, marking a yearly rate of 2.4%, against predictions of 2.5%. This cooling inflation pressure could mean a more relaxed Fed stance. Meanwhile, as the US dollar retreats from its peaks, commodities like metals, priced in dollars, become cheaper for international buyers, lifting prices on exchanges. Copper reached $8,977 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, and aluminum hit $2,545, buoyed by these economic signals. China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeing similar trends, boosting metals’ global investment appeal.

Continue Reading at Finimize.com…

Key Inflation Gauge Rises Slightly in November, Offering Mixed Signals for the Fed

by John Carney
Breitbart.com

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation ticked up less than expected in November, offering a glimmer of relief amid persistent price pressures that have cast doubt on the central bank’s recent interest rate cuts.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose just 0.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. That figure came in below economists’ projections of a 0.2 percent increase, suggesting a potential pause in what had been a gradual upward trajectory.

Despite the monthly slowdown, the year-over-year inflation rate edged higher, climbing to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent in October. The increase moves inflation further from the Fed’s two percent target, underscoring the central bank’s challenge as it navigates a complex economic landscape.

Continue Reading at Breitbart.com…

Inflation Bites: The $38 Million Man

by Mike Maharrey
GoldSeek

It’s easy to think of “inflation” as an abstract economic principle and forget that it has real impacts on real people.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the pain of price inflation during his press conference at the close of the December FOMC meeting.

“We understand very well that prices went up by a great deal, and people really feel that, and it’s prices of food and transportation and heating your home and things like that. So there’s tremendous pain in that burst of inflation that was very global.”

Powell did not admit that he and his fellow central bankers were largely responsible for that pain, although he took credit for bringing inflation down, saying, “Now we have inflation itself is way down — but people are still feeling high prices — and that is really what people are feeling.”

Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…

The Fed Saves Its Own Ass at Your Expense

by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign

Marco Polo never actually set foot on Japanese soil. But that didn’t stop him from writing the most wildly exaggerated tales about the immense, incredible wealth of Japan– which he called Cipangu.

Supposedly Marco Polo had spoken to merchants and traders who’d been there, but it’s entirely possible he made it all up—typical for Marco Polo and his tall tales.

Nevertheless, about a century and a half later, a young Italian sailor devoured Polo’s writings and became convinced he had to lead an expedition to Cipangu and exploit the unimaginable wealth described in Polo’s stories.

That sailor, of course, was Christopher Columbus. After years of struggling to secure the necessary investment, he finally set sail in 1492. When he landed in Hispaniola, he thought he’d found Asia.

Continue Reading at SchiffSovereign.com…

The Fed Cuts, but Wall Street Wanted MOAR!

The episode covers Federal Reserve rate cuts, potential U.S. Treasury yield increases, China’s economic signals, market speculation, inflation risks, geopolitical impacts, and investment strategies amid global economic shifts.

by Dr. Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity

Executive Summary

The episode dives into the current financial landscape, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, the potential for U.S. Treasury yields to reach 6%, and the economic signals coming from China. Paul Kiker joins me to discuss these developments, highlighting the market’s reaction and the broader implications for investors. We explore the speculative nature of current market conditions, the potential risks of high inflation, and the impact of geopolitical factors on global markets.

Fed Rate Cuts and Market Reaction

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by a quarter point has sparked a significant reaction in the markets. Despite the cut, the Fed’s forward guidance has been more hawkish, leading to a sell-off in stocks. I liken Wall Street’s reaction to a three-year-old throwing a tantrum, as the markets are not getting the candy they expected. The infamous dot plot shows a shift in expectations for 2025, with rates now projected to be around 3.8%, up from previous estimates.

Continue Reading at PeakProsperity.com…

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Holds at Seven-Month High

from Zero Hedge

The Fed’s favorite (until it starts rising) inflation indicator – Core PCE – printed cooler than expected for November (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) which held it steady at +2.8% YoY (below the expected 2.9%) – tied for the highest since April…

[…] However, Headline PCE rose to +2.4% from +2.3% – its highest since July…

[…] Durable (and non-durable) Goods Deflation has all but evaporated now…

[…] The so-called SuperCore – Core Services Ex-Shelter PCE – rose 0.16% MoM leaving the index up 3.51% YoY (steady at its highest since April)…

Continue Reading at ZeroHedge.com…

The Fed Admits Inflation is Stickier Than it Thought

by John Carney
Breitbart.com

The Fed Cut Again Even Though Economic Data Called for a Pause

Federal Reserve officials this week came as close as they are probably ever going to get to admitting that the aggressive interest rate reduction they enacted weeks before the 2024 election was a mistake.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s monetary policy unit, cut its benchmark interest rate by one-quarter of a point, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. This was widely anticipated by financial markets, with the fed funds futures market pricing in a 95 percent chance of the 25 basis point cut on the eve of the Fed meeting.

Continue Reading at Breitbart.com…

Trump’s Economic Plans

by James Rickards
Daily Reckoning

Trump will begin his first 100 days with an emphasis on his economic plans.

His core economic team is already announced including Russell Vought as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative, Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council, Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce.

Hassett and Bessent will form the core of this team with Greer taking the lead on tariffs and Vought taking the lead on budget deficits and fiscal policy.

Trump’s economic policy will be built around what are called the Three Arrows. That’s a name adopted by the new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He took the name from the Three Arrows policy of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who announced them in 2012.

Continue Reading at DailyReckoning.com…

Visualized: Food Inflation in the U.S. (2015-2025F)

from Visual Capitalist

Visualized: Food Inflation in the U.S. (2015-2025F)

Over the past decade, U.S. food prices have fluctuated significantly, reflecting economic, environmental, and global factors. But where is the trend headed?

This bar chart, sponsored by Brazil Potash, uses data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to show U.S. food inflation from 2015 to the forecasted 2025.

The Inflation Peak of 2022

From 2015 to 2019, annual food price changes in the U.S. hovered below 2%, signaling a period of stability. The lowest came in 2016 at 0.3%. However, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 disrupted this trend, pushing prices up by 3.4%, followed by a sharper climb of 3.9% in 2021.

In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9%, the fastest of any year since 1979. That same year, food-at-home prices increased by 11.4%.

Continue Reading at VisualCapitalist.com…