from Yahoo Finance
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, April: After Some Zigs, a Zag. But 6-Month Core CPI Hits 4.0%, 6-Month Core Services CPI Hits 6.0%, Both Highest Since Mid-2023
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Month-to-month data is volatile. We’ll look at the trends.
After months of worsening data on CPI inflation, we got still bad, but less bad, data today for April by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And perhaps it was just another month-to-month squiggle, to be turned around over the next few months, of which we had many. Or perhaps it was a change in trend.
We’ll get to the details in a moment. But in summary, on a year-over-year basis:
AIER Everyday Price Index Rises for Fifth Consecutive Month
by Peter C. Earle
The American Institute for Economic Research
The AIER Everyday Price Index rose for a fifth consecutive month in April 2024. The 0.59 percent increase brings our proprietary inflation measure to 290.9.
[…] In April 2024, fourteen constituents of the Everyday Price Index rose in price, with the largest increases taking place in motor fuel, food away from home, and personal care services. In nine categories prices declined, the largest of those coming in fuels and utilities, domestic services, and pet and pet products.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2024 on May 15, 2024. The month-over-month headline came in 0.1 percent less than the 0.4 percent expected. Meanwhile, core month-over-month was in line with forecasts (0.3 percent), as were both the year-over-year headline (3.4 percent) and year-over-year core (3.6 percent) readings.
Powell Says Inflation ‘Higher Than Anybody Expected’ and His Confidence ‘Not as High as it Was’
by Ernest Hoffman
Kitco
(Kitco News) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attended a Foreign Bankers’ Association event in Amsterdam on Tuesday, which offered him the opportunity to comment on the U.S. economy in general, and inflation in particular, after PPI came in well above expectations in the morning.
While Powell pointed to the progress that was made on inflation in 2023, he acknowledged that this year has not continued the positive trend.
“The first quarter in the United States was notable for its lack of further progress on inflation,” he said. “We had higher readings in the first quarter, higher than we expected. We did not expect this to be a smooth road, but these were higher than anybody expected. What that has told us is that we will need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”
Inflation Inferno: Producer Price Index Shows Prices Rising Much More Than Expected
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
A key gauge of inflation surged by much more than expected in April, confirming that the pace of inflation has accelerated.
The producer price index for final demand, which measures the prices paid to U.S. businesses for their goods and services, rose by 2.2 percent in April, the Department of Labor said Thursday. Compared with a year ago, the index is up 2.2 percent, the largest increase in a year.
Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent gain in April compared with March and a 2.2 percent gain year-over-year.
The impact of the higher-than-expected figures for April was somewhat softened because the prior month’s estimate was revised down from a 0.2 percent gain to a decrease of 0.1 percent.
Out of Control Inflation: It Now Takes at Least $177,798 for a Family of Four to Live Comfortably in the U.S.
by Michael Snyder
The Economic Collapse Blog
I never imagined that we would ever see a time when it takes $177,798 for a family of four to live comfortably in the United States. Unfortunately, that day has arrived. Our leaders have been pursuing highly inflationary policies for many years, and now we have reached a point where inflation is wildly out of control. In fact, the latest wholesale inflation figure that was released on Tuesday came in much higher than expected. Sadly, this is just the beginning and we are in far more trouble than most people realize.
According to an incredibly shocking new study, most Americans do not make enough money to “live comfortably” in the highly inflationary environment that we find ourselves in today…
A recent study has revealed the incomes needed for families to live comfortably across the United States – and the stark contrast in the cost of living between states is startling.
When Gasoline is $100 Per Gallon
by John Klar
American Thinker
It is a mathematical fact that gasoline in the U.S. will eventually rise to $100 for a gallon (perhaps $130 for those interested in higher octane).
This is not fear-mongering, but basic arithmetic and economics. Here’s why.
The price of goods and labor is directly linked to money supply and market factors. This is not merely “supply and demand” economics, but an issue of overheating (or overleveraging) an economy by printing and/or borrowing too much money. When a government prints more money than the underlying economy is generating in real wealth, this is essentially a form of borrowing, often called “debt monetization.”
The United States has been doing this for decades, staving off the ordinary fluctuations in the economy punctuated by innovations and growth alternating with recessions – borrowing money in times of turmoil softens the blow, but also forestalls the consequences.
$27,000 Gold
by James Rickards
Daily Reckoning
I’ve previously said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today, I’m updating that forecast.
My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000.
I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.
Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.
Here’s how I reached that price level forecast…
Thirty-Four Trillion Dollars and No One Cares
by Craig Hemke
Sprott Money
What’s another trillion? What’s another five trillion or ten trillion when no one cares? It’s not like it’s real money anyway!
Perusing the internet this morning, I found this little beauty and was reminded of why I became a “gold analyst” all those years ago…
[…] The full article is behind the Fortune magazine paywall, but the headline sums it up perfectly. The current U.S. debt total has reached $34.6T, but no one in politics could give a darn. They just keep spending and spending in order to buy off as many voters as possible while funding all of their wars.
Inflation in a Post-Lockdown Economy Created ‘Perfect Storm’ for Mass Restaurant Closures
by Olivia Rondeau
Breitbart.com
Inflation, the high cost of living, and the post-coronavirus lockdown landscape have created the “perfect storm” for restaurants across the country to fail, analysis shows.
From sprawling metropolises like New York City to midwestern towns, Americans are eating out less and less as the value of their dollars plummets.
Data from the third quarter of 2023 shows that visits to full-service restaurants across the United States were down nearly five percent from 2022, while customers at coffee shops shot up by around the same amount.
As people returned to in-person work after the pandemic shutdowns, their fast-casual food and drink orders went up while they spent less to actually sit down somewhere and eat.
Are U.S. Interest Rates High Enough to Beat Inflation? The Fed Will Take Its Time to Find Out
The sharp interest rate hikes of the past two years will likely take longer than previously expected to bring down inflation, several Federal Reserve officials have said in recent comments, suggesting there may be few, if any, rate cuts this year
by Christopher Rugaber
Independent.co.uk
The sharp interest rate hikes of the past two years will likely take longer than previously expected to bring down inflation, several Federal Reserve officials have said in recent comments, suggesting there may be few, if any, rate cuts this year.
A major concern expressed by both Fed policymakers and some economists is that higher borrowing costs aren’t having as much of an impact as economics textbooks would suggest. Americans as a whole, for example, aren’t spending much more of their incomes on interest payments than they were a few years ago, according to government data, despite the Fed’s sharp rate increases. That means higher rates may not be doing much to limit many Americans’ spending, or cool inflation.