What to Expect From October’s CPI Inflation Report
by Simon Moore
Forbes
Further evidence of disinflation is expected with October’s Consumer Price Index report. However, with inflation close to the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% annual goal, jobs data is likely to have a greater bearing on the FOMC’s upcoming interest rate decisions. Still, relatively good news on inflation is expected.
When Is The October CPI Report?
CPI figures for the month of October 2024 are scheduled to be released on November 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. This is the earlier of two major inflation releases for the month, with Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index being released on at 10 a.m. ET on November 27 as part of the Personal Income and Outlays report. The FOMC prefers the PCE as an inflation metric. However, CPI tends to have more market impact because it is released earlier and the CPI and PCE metrics are often aligned.
As the Election Winds Down, Worries of ‘Bond Vigilantes’ and Inflation Hit Markets
In the case that Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris, some see a scenario in which rising fiscal deficits, along with a potential global trade war, could mean higher inflation and surging bond yields.
by Jeff Cox
CNBC.com
The potential that Donald Trump could prevail in the presidential race has contributed to sentiment in financial markets that the firebrand candidate’s policies could stir both economic growth as well as inflation.
In the case that Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris, some see a scenario in which rising fiscal deficits, along with a potential global trade war, could mean higher inflation and surging bond yields, along with gains in the stock market.
Being that yields and prices move in the opposite direction, that would be bad for underlying fixed income value. Depending on how things trend, there’s even talk about the return of “bond vigilantes” — traders who essentially force the government’s hands by either eschewing government debt or selling it outright.
Despite Sharp Decline, Inflation Remains a Sore Point for Harris
by Reuters
Kitco
WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) – For six months or so in 2021, as vaccines paved an economic reopening from the COVID-19 pandemic and fresh waves of federal benefits flowed to household bank accounts, President Joe Biden’s administration reaped the benefit with an approval rating pinned above 50%.
It has been mired around 40% ever since, with the scarring impact of subsequently high inflation still cited by voters as a major issue even though the pace of price increases has declined, wages and the economy continue to grow, and the jobless rate remains low.
As good as the economy might seem across most major indicators, inflation that peaked at 9% more than two years ago has been hard for Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to outrun, and given former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump a cudgel that remains effective on the eve of the election even as inflation has dwindled to 2.4%.
The Gold Price Rises Regardless
by Craig Hemke
Sprott Money
Rising Gold Prices Amid Economic Uncertainty
It’s going to be a busy week for gold and silver prices as the U.S. holds its presidential election. Will Trump win? Will Harris win? No one can say for certain, but one thing we do know: The price of gold will rise over the next four years regardless of who becomes the next president.
And why do we know this for certain? Because neither candidate has put forth a proposal to manage the runaway fiscal debt and deficit of the United States. As such, the only plan is to continue on the same course. Borrow, spend, and hope that the system can continue indefinitely.
A Real Asset Business That Benefits From Inflation
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
In the pantheon of human ingenuity, the development of iron and steel ranks up there with the discovery of fire and the invention of the wheel.
In fact, the advancement of human civilization would have been nearly impossible without iron—and the steel that it becomes.
Metallurgy (and agriculture) are ultimately what brought our ancestors out of caves and allowed them to build lasting settlements, many of which (Athens, Jerusalem, Delhi, etc.) still exist to this day.
Steel is still arguably the most important industrial commodity in the world. From railroads to skyscrapers, cars, bridges and electrical infrastructure, our modern way of life depends on steel.
Tennessee Grocery Store That Stopped Raising Prices Amid Inflation Fears Closure
by Amy Furr
Breitbart.com
A grocery store in Nashville, Tennessee, that stopped raising its prices to help customers suffering due to inflation may soon have to close due to being behind on rent.
The grocery store called A&M Marketplace, which is located at the Nashville Farmer’s Market, was recently notified it is in default, WTVF reported on Friday. Now, the store’s operators are worried because they only have a few days to come up with over $27,000. The owner is trying to find answers and help to remedy the situation, the outlet continued:
Storeowner Martha Lupai claims that an ongoing issue with squirrels in the Market House has caused her to throw out more than $5,700 in food due to contamination, halt her smoothie business—costing her $150 per day—and close her store multiple times to disinfect and clean. She’s spoken to city leaders about this issue.
Lupai said she was offered and committed to a repayment plan to get caught up, but the Nashville Farmers’ Market is now going back on their word.
In September, Lupai said she agreed to pay the expected over $8,000 a month plus around $2,000 to eventually make good on the debt.
Not Only Would Banks Not Cause Inflation, They Could Not Cause It
by John Tamny
Forbes
Whether it’s actual inflation, or the kind of “inflation” that only economists and their media enablers tend to imagine it to be, a consensus invariably emerges that the Federal Reserve must “raise interest rates” to rein in the lending that has allegedly caused inflation. Translated, price controls from the Federal Reserve to supposedly bring down market prices. Don’t shoot the messenger.
The main thing is that if we ignore the overwhelming fatuity that informs the Fed’s inflation-fighting narrative, the benefit of doing so at least allows for more analysis of how the Fed is allegedly supposed to fight inflation: by restraining banks from making loans at such low rates of interest. The narrative implies that banks are being too “easy,” so the Fed will step in to bring public discipline (in the form of higher interest rates) to where it’s apparently lacking in private.
Eurozone Inflation Tops Estimates in October: Could This Affect ECB Policies?
by Piero Cingari
EuroNews
Eurozone inflation hit 2% in October, exceeding forecasts and up from September’s 1.7%, driven by services and food prices. Germany witnessed unexpected price increases. The euro strengthened.
Inflation in the eurozone accelerated in October, with the consumer price index reaching 2% year-over-year, surpassing economist predictions of 1.9% and marking an uptick from 1.7% in September, according to flash estimates by Eurostat.
Despite hovering at the ECB targets, the recent uptick in prices is rekindling questions about how inflation might impact the Bank’s monetary policies in the coming months.
In a separate release, the Eurostat also revealed the unemployment rate within the euro area held at a record-low level of 6.3% in October.
Gold’s Highs; Inflation’s Rise
by Mark Mead Baillie
GoldSeek
Gold’s Highs … Gold just recorded its 16th All-Time Weekly High within the 44 trading weeks that have completed the first 10 months of this year. Price by Gold’s “continuous front-month contract” (at present that for December) tapped 2800 for the first time ever in reaching up to 2802 this past Wednesday.
‘Course — as has been our ongoing take of late — Gold whilst still long-term vastly undervalued per the above Scoreboard’s 3738 Dollar debasement level vs. Friday’s actual settle at 2746, price near-term remains overvalued per our following Market Value gauge. Such measure assesses Gold’s typical movement relative to that of the primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P 500) which at present shows the yellow metal as +96 points “high” above its smooth valuation line to which inevitably price reverses:
A History Lesson On Inflation
by Alasdair MacLeod
Gold Money
The history of money and credit is that the separation of the two always ends in the destruction of credit. We appear to be edging close to that event again.
“While it is the duty of the citizen to support the state, it is not the duty of the state to support the citizen” – President Grover Cleveland (1885—1889)
The point President Cleveland made back in the 1880s was that individuals and vested interests had no rights to preferential treatment by a government elected to represent all. For if preference is given, it is always at the expense of others.
Those days are long gone, and the last president to take this stance was Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s, a whole century ago. He was followed by Herbert Hoover, who was very much an interventionist. As Coolidge reportedly said of his Vice-President, “That man has given me nothing but advice, and all of it bad”. Hoover was criticised for his disastrous intervention policies by Franklin Roosevelt, who succeeded in ousting him in the 1932 election, and then outdid him with even more intervention. The outflows of gold generated by accelerating government spending and the Fed’s monetary policies led to the suspension of gold convertibility for American citizens in 1933 and the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 to $35 per ounce of gold.