from Real Vision
80% of Americans Say Grocery Costs Have Notably Increased Since the Pandemic Started, Survey Finds
New government inflation data shows the rate of price increases for food is subsiding.
by Lorie Konish
CNBC.com
The rate of price increases for food has subsided in recent months, according to the latest government inflation data.
However, shoppers still report feeling burdened by the prices they’re seeing in the grocery store aisles. To that point, within the past few years, 80% of Americans say they’ve felt a notable increase in the cost of groceries, Intuit Credit Karma reported last month.
Since the start of the pandemic, grocery prices have risen 25%, the report also found.
Some consumers have had to sacrifice necessities to afford food, the personal finance company found.
Americans Are Mad About All the Wrong Costs
Don’t complain about the price of a Big Mac. Complain about the price of a house.
by Annie Lowrey
The Atlantic
The Great Inflation is, thank goodness, over.
Four years ago, the coronavirus pandemic kinked the planet’s supply chains, causing shortages of everything from semiconductor chips to box fans. War and drought led to disruptions in commodity markets. Temporary lockdowns and a permanent shift away from offices altered consumers’ purchasing patterns. Families found themselves flush with government stimulus money. A tight labor market drove up wages. Those factors combined meant that families had more money to spend at a time when supply was constrained—and businesses took advantage. The price of everything went up, all at once. And for the first time since the 1980s, inflation became the central economic problem in American life.
Despite Fed Hawkishness, Recent Inflation Data Give Markets Hope
by Robert Barone
Forbes
The financial markets were “mixed” this week (ended June 14) with the tech sectors moving smartly ahead while the more traditional sectors lagged. The S&P 500 (+1.6%) and the Nasdaq (+3.0%) both closed higher. But the industrial stocks were flat to down as represented by the Dow Jones Industrials which were off -0.8% for the week. Year to date, both the S&P 500 (+13.9%) and the tech heavy Nasdaq (+17.8%) are up double digits while the industrial based Dow Jones is only up +2.4% for the year and is down -3.1% so far this quarter.
The tech heavy Nasdaq is hot because of the Artificial Intelligence craze, and that shows up in the S&P 500 in the Magnificent 7. As noted by Rosenberg Research, on a quarter-to-date basis, Nvidia is up +46%, the Magnificent 7 are up +15%, but the S&P 500 in total has grown just over +3%, and if we look at the “other 493,” i.e., S&P 500 ex-Mag 7, we see a negative sign (-2%)! That comes through in the Dow Jones Industrial Average which are off more than -3% year-to-date, indicating issues in the manufacturing/industrial space, and likely presages Recession.
Latest Inflation Data Provides Potential for ‘Even Greater Upside’ in the Stock Market Rally
by Josh Schafer
Yahoo! Finance
After a rough start to 2024, the latest inflation data may very well mean more fuel for the current stock market rally.
“Inflation falling continues to be one of the primary factors behind the bull market in stocks,” Julian Emanuel, who leads Evercore ISI’s equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy, wrote in a note to clients.
On Sunday, Emanuel boosted his year-end price target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to 6,000 from 4,750. Emanuel cited the promising inflation path and the “early innings” of the AI trade when moving his year-end target to the highest on Wall Street.
Fast Food Chains Launch ‘Value Menu’ War After Cost Complaints. Will it Last?
by Cindy Carcamo
LA Times
Starting June 25, McDonald’s will offer a month-long deal featuring a combo meal —either a McChicken, a McDouble or four-piece chicken nuggets, small fries and a small drink — for $5.
After McDonald’s announcement last month, other fast food restaurants followed suit. Wendy’s announced its $3 limited-time breakfast combo meal and Burger King trumpeted that it planned to bring back its $5 Your Way Meal.
Inflation Explained: PPI, CPI, and What They Mean for Rates with Ted Thatcher
from Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network
Kerry and Ted Thatcher discussed the recent PPI and CPI numbers and their significance in relation to inflation and potential rate cuts. They explored Jerome Powell’s perspective and the political incentives for rate reductions, emphasizing the influence of financial markets on Fed decisions. The discussion also touched on the growing disparity between Wall Street and Main Street, expressing apprehension about the impact on average Americans. Additionally, they explored the evolving nature of CPI measurement and its implications for understanding inflation, and the potential effects of political influences on economic policies. The conversation concluded with a reflection on the need for vigilance and caution in financial decision-making, given the complex interplay of economic, political, and market forces.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Biden Keeps Blaming Others for His Economic Mistakes
The president has tried to shift blame for inflation, interest rate hikes, and an overall decimation of consumers’ purchasing power.
by Veronique de Rugy
Reason.com
Government overspending, an activity the Biden administration has taken to a new level, has sent the country into an inflationary spiral. Through trillions of dollars in COVID-19 relief programs, infrastructure spending, vote-buying student loan forgiveness programs, and a political “Build Back Better Agenda,” the White House has flooded the economy and decimated consumers’ purchasing power. We’re paying more and getting less for everything from energy to food.
According to the House Budget Committee, the average family of four is paying around $1,143 more each month than it was in early 2021 for the same goods and services; this includes increased gasoline costs. Rather than reversing course, President Joe Biden is telling voters the private sector is to blame and that he has the answers. He’s doubling down by proposing more stifling, job-killing regulations to “fix” the problem—regulations which will inevitably send inflation to new heights.
Fed’s Neel Kashkari Says It’s ‘Reasonable’ to Predict December Rate Cut
by Ann Saphir
The Globe and Mail
Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Neel Kashkari said Sunday it’s a “reasonable prediction” that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates once this year, waiting until December to do it.
“We need to see more evidence to convince us that inflation is well on our way back down to 2 per cent,” Mr. Kashkari said in an interview with CBS’s Face the Nation.
The Fed last week held its benchmark policy rate in the 5.25-per-cent to 5.50-per-cent range, where it has been since last July, to keep continued pressure on the economy so as to cool inflation. It also published projections that showed the median forecast from all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a single interest-rate cut this year.
10-Year Treasury Yield Slips Again as Traders Weigh This Week’s U.S. Inflation Data
by Lisa Kailai Han and Katrina Bishop
CNBC.com
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield fell again on Friday as data released this week pointed to easing inflation.
The 10-year Treasury yield was trading around 4.209%, down about 3 basis points. The 2-year Treasury note yield was marginally higher at 4.694%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
The moves come after the producer price index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, slipped 0.2% in May, lower than economists’ expectations of a 0.1% uptick and a 0.5% rise in April. The data was released Thursday.
Bidenflation Blues Drags Down Consumer Sentiment to Seven Month Low
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
High inflation brought down consumer sentiment to the lowest level in seven months in early June, the University of Michigan’s survey of U.S. households showed Friday.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 65.6 in the preliminary June reading, down from 69.1 in May. Economists had expected the index to rise to 72.
The decline was driven by a worse assessment of current conditions and a smaller dip in the expectations gauge.
“Assessments of personal finances dipped, due to modestly rising concerns over high prices as well as weakening incomes,” the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, said. “Overall, consumers perceive few changes in the economy from May.”
RBA Seen Holding Key Rate at 12-Year High as Inflation Stays Hot
Australia’s central bank will likely hold its key interest rate at a 12-year high on Tuesday as it tries to restrain consumer prices that have been underpinned by an ultra-tight employment market.
by Swati Pandey
Financial Post
(Bloomberg) — Australia’s central bank will likely hold its key interest rate at a 12-year high on Tuesday as it tries to restrain consumer prices that have been underpinned by an ultra-tight employment market.
The Reserve Bank will keep the cash rate at 4.35% for a fifth straight meeting, economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted. The decision will be released at 2:30 p.m. in Sydney, followed an hour later by Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference.
Australia’s policy meeting follows a highly-anticipated decision by the Federal Reserve last week, when Chair Jerome Powell signaled he wasn’t in a rush to ease monetary policy even after a soft inflation report. Bullock is likely to draw on the same playbook by retaining her mild hawkish bias in acknowledgment of sticky consumer prices.