Guindos Says ECB Sees ‘Substantial Risks’ to Inflation Outlook
by Mark Schroers
BNN Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank has made significant progress in bringing down inflation but can’t declare victory just yet, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos.
“The incoming information shows that the disinflationary process is now well on track,” he said on Monday in Madrid. “The outlook, however, is surrounded by substantial risks.”
Geopolitical conflicts threatening to push up energy and freight costs, extreme weather and sticky wage growth all have the potential to keep price pressures high for longer, Guindos said at a conference. At the same time, past rate hikes might damp demand — and inflation — more than expected, with weaker global growth an added downside risk.
The Spaniard was one of just a few officials who hadn’t commented on the future interest-rate path after the ECB in mid-October lowered borrowing costs for a third time this year.
First it Will Be Inflation. Then Come the IRS Agents.
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
Apart from weathermen, no one besides government bureaucrats can be so wrong, so often, yet still keep their jobs.
No one was ever fired for telling Americans that COVID lockdowns would last just “two weeks, to stop the spread” and “flatten the curve”.
If we’re being generous and call that a ‘miscalculation’, they were off by about 100 weeks, i.e. 50x, in most places before COVID restrictions ceased.
Then there was the infamous Obamacare website, healthcare.gov, which the ‘experts’ in government originally estimated would cost $93 million. That’s already an absurd price tag for a website. But in the end, it cost over $2 billion, and barely functioned.
Breitbart Business Digest: Biden-Harris’s ‘Excess Inflation’ Points to Big Trump Win
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
Economic Indicators Predict a Big Trump Win
The establishment media’s coverage of Donald Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden makes it clear that the Democrats’ closing case will center on stirring fear and loathing for Republicans. Yet the upcoming election will likely turn on the issue Americans have repeatedly called most pressing: the economy.
Economist Robert J. Gordon’s recent study—”How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators?”—offers a data-driven forecast for the Biden-Harris administration’s reelection chances, and the numbers don’t look promising for the Democrats. Gordon, an expert in growth and long-term productivity, uses two key indicators—growth per capita and “excess inflation”—to measure electoral sentiment based on real economic impacts rather than the distractions of the day. His findings? The GOP holds a significant advantage as November approaches.
Inflation Causing Most Travelers to Change Plans, New Survey Says
A new survey says inflation will reduce holiday travelers’ number of days away and cause them to choose less expensive accommodations and destinations.
by Gary Stoller
Forbes
Feeling the effects of inflation, four of every five travelers are changing their holiday plans, a new survey finds.
Holiday travelers expect to decrease the number of days they would normally be away and choose cheaper lodgings and destinations because of inflation-related worries, according to Bankrate.com’s online survey of 2,538 adults, conducted September 18-20 by YouGov Plc. The results are representative of all U.S. adults at least 18 years old, Bankrate.com says.
[…] Of the 83% percent of travelers surveyed who say inflation will change their holiday plans, one-third say they will travel fewer days during the upcoming holidays, and 30% say they would select less expensive lodgings and destinations.
Trump Keeps Big Lead Over Harris On Economy and Inflation
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
As the presidential election reaches its final days, Donald Trump maintains a wide lead over Kamala Harris on the key issues of the economy and inflation.
Efforts by Harris and Democrats to cut into Trump’s advantage on the economy have largely failed, new polling from ABC News and Ipsos indicates.
Forty-five percent of registered voters say they trust Trump more on the economy, including 33 percent who say they strongly trust Trump more. Just 37 percent say they trust Harris more, with only 21 percent saying they strongly trust Harris.
These numbers have been essentially unchanged for at least two months. This indicates that voters have largely made up their minds on which candidate is better on the economy.
‘Fared Terribly’: Price of Middle Class Staples Has Exploded Under Biden-Harris Admin
by Ireland Owens
DailyCaller.com
Many of the traditional milestones of the American middle class have increasingly fallen out of reach under the Biden-Harris administration as high costs and expansive regulations bear down on average people.
The costs of buying a home or car or caring for one’s children have exploded since January 2021, when President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris first took office, compared to the amount average Americans are taking home in pay, according to calculations by the Daily Caller News Foundation. The American middle class’ purchasing power has been degraded by sky-high inflation under the Biden-Harris administration, while high interest rates and government intervention place even more pressure on everyday costs, experts told the DCNF.
Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inversion Hits Milestone On Inflation Fears, Tsunami of Supply, QT. Mortgage Rates Near 7%
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
The 10-year yield surged by 60 basis points in five weeks but may run out of steam by about right now.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.25% on Friday, up by 60 basis points from the day before the Fed’s monster rate cut (when the 10-year yield was 3.65%), and up by 5 basis points from a week ago. This 4.25% is a milestone of sorts.
The 10-year yield has now reached the highest point since July 25. What a three-month round trip! On July 25, longer-term yields began to speed up their decline as the bets on Fed rate cuts kept gaining momentum on less-than-hot labor market data and cooling inflation, and kept declining until the Fed actually cut by 50 basis points on September 18, at which moment, to the surprise of many, particularly in the home sales industry, longer-term yields headed higher, instead of dropping further.
Russia’s Central Bank Raises Interest Rate to 21% to Fight Inflation Boosted by Military Spending
by Associated Press
Market Watch
The central bank said in a statement that “growth in domestic demand is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.” Inflation, the statement said, “is running considerably above the Bank of Russia’s July forecast,” and “inflation expectations continue to increase.” It held out the prospect of more rate increases in December.
Russia’s economy continues to show growth as a result of continuing oil export revenues and government spending on goods, including for the military. One result is inflation, which the central bank has tried to combat with higher rates that make it more expensive to borrow and spend on goods, in theory relieving pressure on prices.
What Did I See On My Recent Visit to the U.S.?
from King World News
With the election only days away, here is what one individual saw on their recent trip the US.
What Did I See On My Recent Visit To The US?
October 27 (King World News) – Matthew Piepenburg, partner at VON GREYERZ: I recently returned from the USA.
My meetings stretched from Portland (Maine) to Northern Virginia, with stops in Boston, Connecticut, NYC, and Bedminster NJ.
Thereafter, I darted to the Midwest, traveling through Pennsylvania & Ohio, with a flight back to Europe via Detroit.
Oops: The Treasury Secretary Spilled the Beans About the Coming Inflation
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
In the aftermath of World War II, with Europe devastated and Japan in ruins after two atomic bombs, the world faced the monumental task of rebuilding the global economy.
It had already been decided at the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference that America and the US dollar would dominate the new international financial system.
But also born from that same conference were the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF)— both of which were created to help resurrect global trade and production.
The World Bank provided crucial loans for rebuilding war-torn countries, including helping to finance European reconstruction projects (including much of France’s modern infrastructure).