from Reuters
Is Inflation Still Slowing? Early 2025 Data Pivotal to Outlook.
by Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau
Dallas Fed
January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.
If this is the case, first-quarter inflation data may exhibit greater persistence and sensitivity to swings in the business cycle. Whether early 2025 monthly inflation rates are similar to late 2024 or a repeat of the previous years’ surprises will be key to assessing the underlying momentum of inflation ahead.
Recent pattern of faster inflation early in the year
Inflation is typically measured as the change in a price index over a year. In thinking about the momentum and trajectory of inflation, it is also useful to consider how prices have changed over a shorter period, such as one month. These shorter-horizon inflation rates are seasonally adjusted (typical variation over the calendar year is removed from the series) and annualized (converted to the annual inflation rate if the increase was repeated for a full year).
Disney Executives Worried as Soaring Prices Drive Families Away From Theme Parks
by David Ng
Breitbart.com
Executives at the Walt Disney Company are reportedly worried that soaring prices are alienating families from its theme parks, with internal surveys showing a decline in guests who are planning return visits to Walt Disney World and Disneyland.
The price of attending a Disney park has skyrocketed in recent years, with the typical price of a four-day stay inside the park rising by $1000 between 2019 and 2024, a new study conducted by The Wall Street Journal showed. The vast majority of that increase — nearly 80 percent — comes from new charges for services that were once free.
This has put a serious damper on fan enthusiasm. Internal surveys obtained by the Journal showed a decline in guests planning return visits to Walt Disney World in Orlando and Disneyland in Anaheim — a potentially disastrous trend for Disney whose theme parks have served as a reliable cash cow for decades.
Trump FTC Must Stop Biden’s Prescription Drug Madness
by Brian Garst
American Thinker
Joe Biden has left the White House, as have his inflationary policies. Unfortunately, the consequences from his administration’s blame dodging for the high cost of everything remain dangerously intact.
One of Biden’s many scapegoats were Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs), who are employed by both private and government health plans to negotiate with drug manufacturers to bring down prescription costs. PBMs improve market efficiency and save consumers money, but in Biden’s world, they’re another politically convenient culprit somehow behind the runaway inflation of the last four years.
An eleventh-hour report from Biden’s Federal Trade Commission (FTC) fails to convincingly substantiate his charges. The report declares that PBMs “charge significant markups for cancer, HIV, and other critical specialty generic drugs.”
Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce
Investor sentiment toward trade policy, inflation, interest rates, and equity volatility will continue to shape bullion’s trajectory.
by Peter C. Earle
The Daily Economy
Gold has surged to a new all-time high, breaking through $2,911.72 per ounce on a thick mix of domestic and foreign uncertainty, inflation concerns, and a shifting macroeconomic landscape. While bullion has historically served as a safe-haven asset, the latest rally is not merely a reaction to market turbulence but instead to a confluence of economic and financial factors that reinforce its role in global portfolios.
Gold price per oz, USD (Jan 2015 – present)
[…] One of the primary catalysts behind gold’s latest rally is the renewed threat of tariffs on steel and aluminum, announced by President Donald Trump over the weekend. Those tariffs, along with potential levies on the growing bloc of BRICS nations if they move away from the dollar usage, have heightened global economic uncertainty.
Will the Federal Reserve Blame Tariffs for the Price Inflation the Fed Creates?
by Daniel Lacalle
Mises.org
Price inflation is rising, but it has nothing to do with tariffs. It has everything to do with the Fed’s policy and the Treasury’s uncontrolled spending.
The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2 percent this month and remains stubbornly high at 2.8 percent annualized. The headline PCE Price Index increased by 0.3 percent, the first 0.3 percent monthly increase in eight months. This has pushed the annualized increase to 2.55 percent, the highest in seven months.
Obviously, this price inflation trend has nothing to do with tariffs but with the fact that government spending soared 10 percent in 2024, and money supply growth is at a two-year-high.
The Federal Reserve created price inflation in 2020 when money supply growth rose at its fastest pace in decades to finance the enormous increase in government spending and perpetuated inflation, keeping an ultra-loose policy for two more years.
Surging U.S. Inflation Expectations Propel Gold Higher
by Jesse Colombo
GoldSeek
Since President Trump took office and introduced his policies, financial markets have faced a wave of uncertainty driven by a mix of complex and often conflicting forces.
This volatility has led to choppy market conditions, but for precious metals investors, uncertainty has been a boon. Over the past month, gold has surged by approximately $200, while silver has climbed $3, or 10%.
One key driver behind this rally is rising U.S. inflation expectations, as newly released data confirms.
U.S. consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 4.3% in February, the highest level since November 2023, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment survey.
Used Car & Truck Prices Heading Higher On Tight Supply, Strong Demand, After U-Turn in Mid-2024 From Historic Plunge. Used EV Prices Jump.
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Already putting pressure on CPI inflation. Now comes tax-refund season.
Inflation pressures are rebuilding in used vehicles. Prices of used vehicles sold at auctions where franchised and independent dealers replenish their inventories rose by 0.4% in January from December, seasonally adjusted (red line), and by 0.6% not seasonally adjusted (blue line), according to the Used Vehicle Value Index by Manheim, the largest auto auction house in the US. The index is adjusted for changes in mix and mileage.
Since the low point in June, prices have risen by 4.9%, seasonally adjusted, and are at the highest level since October 2023. “While it’s not yet spring, wholesale values increased more than we usually see in the month of January, with particular strength at the end of the month,” Manheim said.
A Lot of Things Changed in January, but Not Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts
Americans think the economy will maintain a 3% inflation rate, per the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed.
by Elizabeth Trovall
Market Place
Business owners, analysts and economists are all trying to make sense of the current shift in U.S. economic policy — we’ve heard a lot of them on “Marketplace.” But consumers are also trying to digest the changing policy landscape and how it will affect the job market, spending and even the price of eggs.
We got a glimpse of what American consumers are thinking with January’s Survey of Consumer Expectations by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which includes consumer data taken throughout the month. Last month, consumers held on to their belief that inflation isn’t getting any better — or any worse.
“The consumers are dug in, so, you know, inflation expectations are now kind of maintaining around 3%. That’s a percent higher than the Fed’s target of 2%,” said Rice University’s Zach Bethune.
Consumers are expecting commodity prices to increase.
Gold Hits New Record: Trump’s Tariffs, Inflation Fears Drive Safe Haven Surge
Gold prices rose to yet another record high Monday, extending a yearslong rally for the precious metal accelerated in recent weeks as President Donald Trump’s tariffs upend global trade policy, and investors and central banks search for safety in the evolving global economy.
by Derek Saul
Forbes
Key Facts
– Spot gold rose to as high as $2,938 per troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rising as much as 1.7%.
– Monday’s rally tied to Trump’s imposition of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminum and tariff imports, the latest in a scorching stretch for gold.
– Up 44% over the last year, gold has been by far the best-performer across a basket of 12 leading global asset classes over the period, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute, most notably trouncing the 22% return for the S&P 500 over the last year, including reinvested dividends.
U.S. Inflation Preview: January CPI Data to Test Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The US releases January consumer price inflation (CPI) data on 12 February, with markets watching closely for signs of persistent inflation that could delay Fed rate cuts.
by Chris Beauchamp
IG Bank
What to expect from January’s CPI report
The upcoming US inflation report is expected to show the headline consumer price index (CPI) increasing by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), slightly down from December’s 0.4% rise. This would keep the year-over-year (YoY) rate steady at around 2.9%.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise by 0.3% MoM.
Recent tariff implementations on steel, aluminium, and Chinese goods could contribute to higher input costs, potentially pressuring prices upward through supply chains. The strong January jobs report, showing unemployment at 4% and robust wage growth, suggests inflation might remain sticky, particularly in services.