from Reuters
November CPI Report Marks Latest Test for Fed in Fight Against Inflation
by Alexandra Canal
Yahoo! Finance
November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as the latest test of whether an inflation resurgence is a risk to the US economy as the Federal Reserve debates its final interest rate decision of the year after cutting rates by 75 basis points so far in 2024.
The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.7%, a slight uptick from October’s 2.6% annual gain in prices. Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.3% over the prior month, also ahead of the 0.2% monthly increase seen in October.
On a “core” basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in November are expected to have risen 3.3% over last year for the fourth consecutive month. Economists expect monthly core price increases to also match the prior month’s reading of 0.3%, according to Bloomberg data.
Wall Street Sways as Investors Brace for Inflation Insights
by Finimize Newsroom
Finimize
What’s going on here?
Wall Street faced a dip with investors eagerly awaiting key inflation data that could determine the Fed’s interest rate decision next week.
What does this mean?
Investors are on edge this week, as crucial inflation reports are expected to influence the Fed’s upcoming rate decision. This nervous anticipation comes amid a turbulent mix of tech sector ups and downs. Alphabet’s shares soared thanks to a new chip announcement, lifting the communication services sector. Meanwhile, Oracle’s underwhelming second-quarter report led to a sell-off in tech stocks, worsened by challenges in the chip sector due to China’s scrutiny of Nvidia. Major indexes mirrored this uncertainty: the S&P 500 fell 0.27%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.25%, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.32%. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report likely to show a slight increase to 2.7%, the market projects an 86% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s December 17-18 meeting, strongly influenced by recent job data.
Stocks Slide as Investors Brace for Inflation Data
by P. Martin
NASDAQ
Stocks continued their sluggish price action today, with all three major indexes finishing modestly lower. The Dow logged its fourth-straight triple-digit loss as the tech sector continued to churn, with software stalwart Oracle (ORCL) a latest culprit. Wall Streetow braces for November’s consumer price index (CPI) due out tomorrow morning, just as the Cboe Volatility Index logs its highest close in over two weeks.
[…] Gold Stays Hot Ahead of CPI Data
Oil prices rose again today, albeit marginally, as middle east tensions and China’s economic developments propped up black gold. For the session, January-dated West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 22 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $68.59 per barrel.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul Proposes $300 ‘Inflation Refund’ Payments
[Ed. Note: It’s a particularly stupid group of tax payers who believe that they can pay taxes, then get those taxes handed back to them, and that this circle jerk somehow reduces inflation. We’re talking about really, really stupid people here. Sorry, what I meant to say was… FREE MONEY!!!!]
by Olivia Rondeau
Breitbart.com
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has proposed a one-time $300 payment to individuals earning $150,000 or less, and $500 to couples making $300,000 or less, her office announced Monday.
In what would be the state’s first “Inflation Refund,” Hochul wants to send about 8.6 million New Yorkers a few hundred dollars starting in fall 2025 if approved by the legislature, an official press release stated.
Around $3 billion in taxpayer funds would be allocated for the payments, which the governor called a “break” for her constituents.
“Because of inflation, New York has generated unprecedented revenues through the sales tax — now, we’re returning that cash back to middle class families,” Hochul said. “My agenda for the coming year will be laser-focused on putting money back in your pockets, and that starts with proposing Inflation Refund checks of up to $500 to help millions of hard-working New Yorkers. It’s simple: the cost of living is still too damn high, and New Yorkers deserve a break.”
Consumers Think Inflation Will Slow … Eventually
by Stephanie Hughes
Market Place
We are now in what some people at the Bureau of Labor Statistics refer to as “Inflation Week.” That’s because both the consumer price index and producer price index are coming out in the next few days. Those are readings on where inflation has been. Monday, we got a reading on where people think inflation will be: the November survey of consumer expectations from the New York Fed.
It found that consumers believe inflation will be about 3% a year from now, and even lower, around 2.6% in three years. That’s very similar to the way they looked before the pandemic.
“To me, this just seems like it’s all a return to normality,” said Alan Detmeister, an economist for UBS.
He said consumers tend to overestimate where inflation will be. They remember more when prices go up than when they go down.
Inflation Back On the Radar Ahead of Fed Meeting
This week will provide fresh data on inflation with price levels remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target.
by Tim Smart
USNews.com
Inflation, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.
Back in 2022, when the consumer price index hit the 9% level, Democrats argued it was “transitory” and would subside after the supply chain disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic disappeared. Republicans branded the runup in prices “Bidenflation.”
Yet, a survey of consumer sentiment that came out Friday showed Republicans believe President-elect Donald Trump will crush inflation while Democrats want to buy things now before they cost more.
Economists – and the Federal Reserve – however, are going to look at the data and this week will provide more of it. On Wednesday, the Labor Department will issue the CPI – a measure of how prices for a common basket of goods behave over time – for November with expectations for an increase of 0.3% for the month and an annual rate of 2.7%. That would be a slight increase from November’s 0.2% and 2.6% readings.
November CPI Forecasts Show Stalled Progress On Inflation
With inflation still above the Fed’s target, the last mile is proving stubborn.
by Sarah Hansen
Morningstar Advisor
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Forecasts for the November Consumer Price Index report find that inflation remained relatively steady last month. Price pressures have eased dramatically since peaking in the summer of 2022, but progress is slowing significantly as the inflation rate approaches the Federal Reserve’s target.
Overall, economists expect that consumer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. That would mean the annual inflation rate rose slightly to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. Economists expect the core measure of inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 0.28% in November, which would keep the annual rate steady at 3.3%.
“We actually haven’t seen a tremendous amount of change in the data over the last month,” says Josh Hirt, senior US economist at Vanguard. He adds that the overall inflation rate remains rangebound at 2.5%-3.0%.
What to Expect From This Week’s Inflation Report
The Consumer Price Index Likely Changed Little In November, Forecasters Say
by Diccon Hyatt
Investopedia
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Inflation has barely budged in recent months, and that trend is likely to continue in November.
An inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics due Wednesday is likely to show the Consumer Price Index, a measure of the cost of living, rose 2.7% in the 12 months ending in November, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
That would be up from a 2.6% annual increase in October and the highest inflation rate since July, marking a setback in the Federal Reserve’s battle to get inflation down to a 2% annual rate and keep it there.
Bureau of Labor Statistics via Federal Reserve Economic Data. “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average.”
Progress against inflation has stalled in recent months, contrasting earlier in the year when price increases were notably decelerating.
Brazil Analysts See Higher Key Rate and Inflation Through 2027
by Maria Eloisa Capurro
Yahoo! Finance
The benchmark Selic will rise to 12% at Wednesday’s policy decision, up from the prior estimate 11.75%, according to a weekly central bank survey of economists published Monday. Analysts also lifted their forecasts for the key rate at the end of next year to 13.5%, from 12.63% before.
Borrowing cost cuts are only expected to start in 2026, when the Selic is seen at 11% before falling to 10% in 2027.
Central bankers led by Roberto Campos Neto are widely expected to extend their tightening cycle from the current level of 11.25% while also reinforcing their commitment to haul inflation to the 3% target.
Used-Vehicle Prices Turn Into Inflation Headwind, After Historic Two-Year Plunge Helped Power the “Deceleration” of Core CPI
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Prices are rising again, amid tight supply, sharply reduced flow through the used-vehicle pipeline, and strong demand.
Prices of used vehicle sold at auctions across the US jumped by 1.3% in November from October, seasonally adjusted, continuing an upward trend that started over the summer, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which is adjusted for changes in mix and mileage (red in the chart).
This jump flipped the year-over-year reading to the first increase (+0.2%) since August 2022, after the historic plunge during which prices gave up nearly 50% of the pandemic spike, with a bottom in mid-2024. Now prices have turned around.