by Mark Mead Baillie
GoldSeek

Welcome to winter as we type literally through the solstice here at 10:21 CET. And let’s start with a “Thumbs Up!” to one Elizabeth Morgan Hammack, graduate of THE Leland Stanford Junior University, today President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and who — as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee — had the “cojones” to not go in favour of last Wednesday’s -25bps reduction for the FedFundsRate to its new 4.25%-4.50% Target Range.

“So are you taking credit for her having read last week’s Gold Update, mmb?”

Heavens no, dear Squire. Rather, we’re just favourably impressed that — instead of being FinMedia-led as seems is the Fed — Ms. Hammock can do math sufficiently such as to realize inflation has been going the wrong way as precisely depicted in our prior missive. Brava Beth!

Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…

from WION

Goldman Sachs forecasts core PCE inflation at 2.4% in late 2025., revised up from 2.1%

by Eamonn Sheridan
Forex Live

This is via a Wall Street Journal interview with Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. Hatzius has, so far, stuck with his forecast for 3 interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, citing:

• I think a lot of the underlying reasons for disinflation are still intact
• for me, (its) hard to see how we’re reversing this underlying inflation process
• if you listen to Powell during the press conference, that seems to be where he’s coming out as well. And I agree with that.

Summary of Inflation Impacts:

• Hatzius foresees a manageable inflation environment, with continued progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
• While specific risks, such as tariffs, could cause temporary upticks in inflation, underlying economic adjustments (wages, labor market) support a disinflationary trend.
• Sticky price components and seasonal effects will gradually align with overall disinflationary forces, reinforcing the downward trend in inflation

Continue Reading at ForexLive.com…

from Bloomberg Television

Inflation was more manageable than expected in November, according to the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of price changes, as sticky inflation douses investors and borrowers’ hopes of much lower interest rates in 2025.

by Derek Saul
Forbes

Key Facts

– The core personal consumption expenditures index rose 2.8% year-over-year, according to the metric released Friday morning by the Commerce Department, matching October’s reading.

– The reading of core PCE, which tracks how much Americans spent on goods and services outside of more price-volatile food and energy categories, is better than median economist forecasts of 2.9%, according to Dow Jones data.

– Headline PCE inflation came in at 2.4%, also lower than estimates of 2.5%, but still up from October’s 2.3%.

Continue Reading at Forbes.com…

from David Lin

by Finimize Newsroom
Finimize

What’s going on here?

Base metals are enjoying a gleam in prices as recent US dollar dips and softer inflation numbers boost their appeal.

What does this mean?

The US Commerce Department’s latest inflation figures suggest a potential easing from the Federal Reserve next year. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index inched up just 0.1% in November, marking a yearly rate of 2.4%, against predictions of 2.5%. This cooling inflation pressure could mean a more relaxed Fed stance. Meanwhile, as the US dollar retreats from its peaks, commodities like metals, priced in dollars, become cheaper for international buyers, lifting prices on exchanges. Copper reached $8,977 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, and aluminum hit $2,545, buoyed by these economic signals. China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeing similar trends, boosting metals’ global investment appeal.

Continue Reading at Finimize.com…

from ThisisJohnWilliams

by John Carney
Breitbart.com

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation ticked up less than expected in November, offering a glimmer of relief amid persistent price pressures that have cast doubt on the central bank’s recent interest rate cuts.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose just 0.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. That figure came in below economists’ projections of a 0.2 percent increase, suggesting a potential pause in what had been a gradual upward trajectory.

Despite the monthly slowdown, the year-over-year inflation rate edged higher, climbing to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent in October. The increase moves inflation further from the Fed’s two percent target, underscoring the central bank’s challenge as it navigates a complex economic landscape.

Continue Reading at Breitbart.com…

from Peter Schiff

by Mike Maharrey
GoldSeek

It’s easy to think of “inflation” as an abstract economic principle and forget that it has real impacts on real people.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the pain of price inflation during his press conference at the close of the December FOMC meeting.

“We understand very well that prices went up by a great deal, and people really feel that, and it’s prices of food and transportation and heating your home and things like that. So there’s tremendous pain in that burst of inflation that was very global.”

Powell did not admit that he and his fellow central bankers were largely responsible for that pain, although he took credit for bringing inflation down, saying, “Now we have inflation itself is way down — but people are still feeling high prices — and that is really what people are feeling.”

Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…

from CNBC Television

by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign

Marco Polo never actually set foot on Japanese soil. But that didn’t stop him from writing the most wildly exaggerated tales about the immense, incredible wealth of Japan– which he called Cipangu.

Supposedly Marco Polo had spoken to merchants and traders who’d been there, but it’s entirely possible he made it all up—typical for Marco Polo and his tall tales.

Nevertheless, about a century and a half later, a young Italian sailor devoured Polo’s writings and became convinced he had to lead an expedition to Cipangu and exploit the unimaginable wealth described in Polo’s stories.

That sailor, of course, was Christopher Columbus. After years of struggling to secure the necessary investment, he finally set sail in 1492. When he landed in Hispaniola, he thought he’d found Asia.

Continue Reading at SchiffSovereign.com…

from talkdigitalnetwork

The episode covers Federal Reserve rate cuts, potential U.S. Treasury yield increases, China’s economic signals, market speculation, inflation risks, geopolitical impacts, and investment strategies amid global economic shifts.

by Dr. Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity

Executive Summary

The episode dives into the current financial landscape, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, the potential for U.S. Treasury yields to reach 6%, and the economic signals coming from China. Paul Kiker joins me to discuss these developments, highlighting the market’s reaction and the broader implications for investors. We explore the speculative nature of current market conditions, the potential risks of high inflation, and the impact of geopolitical factors on global markets.

Fed Rate Cuts and Market Reaction

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by a quarter point has sparked a significant reaction in the markets. Despite the cut, the Fed’s forward guidance has been more hawkish, leading to a sell-off in stocks. I liken Wall Street’s reaction to a three-year-old throwing a tantrum, as the markets are not getting the candy they expected. The infamous dot plot shows a shift in expectations for 2025, with rates now projected to be around 3.8%, up from previous estimates.

Continue Reading at PeakProsperity.com…

from Felix & Friends (Goat Academy)

from Zero Hedge

The Fed’s favorite (until it starts rising) inflation indicator – Core PCE – printed cooler than expected for November (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) which held it steady at +2.8% YoY (below the expected 2.9%) – tied for the highest since April…

[…] However, Headline PCE rose to +2.4% from +2.3% – its highest since July…

[…] Durable (and non-durable) Goods Deflation has all but evaporated now…

[…] The so-called SuperCore – Core Services Ex-Shelter PCE – rose 0.16% MoM leaving the index up 3.51% YoY (steady at its highest since April)…

Continue Reading at ZeroHedge.com…

from Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network

by John Carney
Breitbart.com

The Fed Cut Again Even Though Economic Data Called for a Pause

Federal Reserve officials this week came as close as they are probably ever going to get to admitting that the aggressive interest rate reduction they enacted weeks before the 2024 election was a mistake.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s monetary policy unit, cut its benchmark interest rate by one-quarter of a point, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. This was widely anticipated by financial markets, with the fed funds futures market pricing in a 95 percent chance of the 25 basis point cut on the eve of the Fed meeting.

Continue Reading at Breitbart.com…

from Arcadia Economics