Figure matches Wall Street’s forecasts and clears way for Federal Reserve rate cut next week

by ColSmith and Harriet Clarfelt
FT

US inflation ticked up to 2.7 per cent last month, matching Wall Street’s forecasts and clearing the way for an expected Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

Wednesday’s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Bloomberg. But it was higher than the 2.6 per cent rate in October, which itself marked an increase on the previous month.

Market pricing indicated that investors now assign a more than 98 per cent probability to a quarter-point rate cut in December, up from less than 90 per cent before the release of the latest inflation figures.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, said the figures were “very much within the Fed’s comfort zone and support[ed] a rate cut at the next meeting”. A quarter-point cut next week would take interest rates to a new target range of 4.25-4.5 per cent.

Continue Reading at FT.com…

from Rebel Capitalist

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock indexes drifted lower in the runup to the highlight of the week for the market, the latest update on inflation. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% Tuesday and marked its first back-to-back losses in three weeks.

by Stan Choe
BIV

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock indexes drifted lower in the runup to the highlight of the week for the market, the latest update on inflation. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% Tuesday and marked its first back-to-back losses in three weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite also fell 0.3%. Oracle dragged on the market after reporting weaker growth than analysts expected. Treasury yields rose in the bond market ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report, which will be among the final big pieces of data before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on interest rates next week.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock indexes are drifting lower Tuesday in the runup to the highlight of the week for the market, the latest update on inflation that’s coming on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 dipped by 0.2% in late trading, a day after pulling back from its latest all-time high. The index is on track for its first back-to-back losses in more than three weeks, as momentum slows following a big rally that has it on track for one of its best years of the millennium.

Continue Reading at BIV.com…

from CNBC Television

The consumer price index is expected to show a 2.7% 12-month inflation rate for November, up one-tenth of a percentage point from October. Core CPI is forecast at 3.3%, or unchanged from October.

by Jeff Cox
CNBC.com

A key economic report coming Wednesday is expected to show that progress has stalled in bringing down the inflation rate, though not so much that the Federal Reserve won’t lower interest rates next week.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, is expected to show a 2.7% 12-month inflation rate for November, which would mark a 0.1 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core inflation is forecast at 3.3%, or unchanged from October. Both measures are projected to show 0.3% monthly increases.

Continue Reading at CNBC.com…

from Reuters

by Alexandra Canal
Yahoo! Finance

November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as the latest test of whether an inflation resurgence is a risk to the US economy as the Federal Reserve debates its final interest rate decision of the year after cutting rates by 75 basis points so far in 2024.

The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.7%, a slight uptick from October’s 2.6% annual gain in prices. Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.3% over the prior month, also ahead of the 0.2% monthly increase seen in October.

On a “core” basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in November are expected to have risen 3.3% over last year for the fourth consecutive month. Economists expect monthly core price increases to also match the prior month’s reading of 0.3%, according to Bloomberg data.

Continue Reading at Finance.Yahoo.com…

from Yahoo Finance

by Finimize Newsroom
Finimize

What’s going on here?

Wall Street faced a dip with investors eagerly awaiting key inflation data that could determine the Fed’s interest rate decision next week.

What does this mean?

Investors are on edge this week, as crucial inflation reports are expected to influence the Fed’s upcoming rate decision. This nervous anticipation comes amid a turbulent mix of tech sector ups and downs. Alphabet’s shares soared thanks to a new chip announcement, lifting the communication services sector. Meanwhile, Oracle’s underwhelming second-quarter report led to a sell-off in tech stocks, worsened by challenges in the chip sector due to China’s scrutiny of Nvidia. Major indexes mirrored this uncertainty: the S&P 500 fell 0.27%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.25%, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.32%. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report likely to show a slight increase to 2.7%, the market projects an 86% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s December 17-18 meeting, strongly influenced by recent job data.

Continue Reading at Finimize.com…

from Forbes Breaking News

by P. Martin
NASDAQ

Stocks continued their sluggish price action today, with all three major indexes finishing modestly lower. The Dow logged its fourth-straight triple-digit loss as the tech sector continued to churn, with software stalwart Oracle (ORCL) a latest culprit. Wall Streetow braces for November’s consumer price index (CPI) due out tomorrow morning, just as the Cboe Volatility Index logs its highest close in over two weeks.

[…] Gold Stays Hot Ahead of CPI Data

Oil prices rose again today, albeit marginally, as middle east tensions and China’s economic developments propped up black gold. For the session, January-dated West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 22 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $68.59 per barrel.

Continue Reading at Nasdaq.com…

from Liberty and Finance

[Ed. Note: It’s a particularly stupid group of tax payers who believe that they can pay taxes, then get those taxes handed back to them, and that this circle jerk somehow reduces inflation. We’re talking about really, really stupid people here. Sorry, what I meant to say was… FREE MONEY!!!!]

by Olivia Rondeau
Breitbart.com

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has proposed a one-time $300 payment to individuals earning $150,000 or less, and $500 to couples making $300,000 or less, her office announced Monday.

In what would be the state’s first “Inflation Refund,” Hochul wants to send about 8.6 million New Yorkers a few hundred dollars starting in fall 2025 if approved by the legislature, an official press release stated.

Around $3 billion in taxpayer funds would be allocated for the payments, which the governor called a “break” for her constituents.

“Because of inflation, New York has generated unprecedented revenues through the sales tax — now, we’re returning that cash back to middle class families,” Hochul said. “My agenda for the coming year will be laser-focused on putting money back in your pockets, and that starts with proposing Inflation Refund checks of up to $500 to help millions of hard-working New Yorkers. It’s simple: the cost of living is still too damn high, and New Yorkers deserve a break.”

Continue Reading at Breitbart.com…

from Fox Business

by Stephanie Hughes
Market Place

We are now in what some people at the Bureau of Labor Statistics refer to as “Inflation Week.” That’s because both the consumer price index and producer price index are coming out in the next few days. Those are readings on where inflation has been. Monday, we got a reading on where people think inflation will be: the November survey of consumer expectations from the New York Fed.

It found that consumers believe inflation will be about 3% a year from now, and even lower, around 2.6% in three years. That’s very similar to the way they looked before the pandemic.

“To me, this just seems like it’s all a return to normality,” said Alan Detmeister, an economist for UBS.

He said consumers tend to overestimate where inflation will be. They remember more when prices go up than when they go down.

Continue Reading at MarketPlace.org…

from CNBC Television

This week will provide fresh data on inflation with price levels remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target.

by Tim Smart
USNews.com

Inflation, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.

Back in 2022, when the consumer price index hit the 9% level, Democrats argued it was “transitory” and would subside after the supply chain disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic disappeared. Republicans branded the runup in prices “Bidenflation.”

Yet, a survey of consumer sentiment that came out Friday showed Republicans believe President-elect Donald Trump will crush inflation while Democrats want to buy things now before they cost more.

Economists – and the Federal Reserve – however, are going to look at the data and this week will provide more of it. On Wednesday, the Labor Department will issue the CPI – a measure of how prices for a common basket of goods behave over time – for November with expectations for an increase of 0.3% for the month and an annual rate of 2.7%. That would be a slight increase from November’s 0.2% and 2.6% readings.

Continue Reading at USNews.com…

from Reuters

With inflation still above the Fed’s target, the last mile is proving stubborn.

by Sarah Hansen
Morningstar Advisor

Forecasts for the November Consumer Price Index report find that inflation remained relatively steady last month. Price pressures have eased dramatically since peaking in the summer of 2022, but progress is slowing significantly as the inflation rate approaches the Federal Reserve’s target.

Overall, economists expect that consumer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. That would mean the annual inflation rate rose slightly to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. Economists expect the core measure of inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 0.28% in November, which would keep the annual rate steady at 3.3%.

“We actually haven’t seen a tremendous amount of change in the data over the last month,” says Josh Hirt, senior US economist at Vanguard. He adds that the overall inflation rate remains rangebound at 2.5%-3.0%.

Continue Reading at MorningStar.com…

from Bloomberg Television