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The ‘Supercore’ Inflation Measure Shows Fed May Have a Real Problem On Its Hands

Markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

by Brian Evans
CNBC.com

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index report rattled Wall Street Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a measure of underlying prices.

Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

Continue Reading at CNBC.com…

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls Slightly as Outlook for Inflation Worsens

Consumer sentiment about the U.S. economy has ticked down but remains near a recent high, with Americans’ outlook largely unchanged this year

by Christopher Rugaber
ABC News

WASHINGTON — Consumer sentiment about the U.S. economy has ticked down but remains near a recent high, with Americans’ outlook largely unchanged this year.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, released Friday in a preliminary version, slipped to 77.9 this month, down from March’s figure of 79.4. Sentiment is about halfway between its all-time low, reached in June 2022 when inflation peaked, and its pre-pandemic averages. The survey has been conducted since 1980.

“Consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the consumer survey.

Continue Reading at ABCNews.Go.com…

Central Banks Grapple with Inflation Threat Amid Oil Price Rally

The latest U.S. consumer price index revealed an increase of 3.5% for March on an annual basis.

by Irina Slav
Oil Price

When the price of oil rises, the price of everything else rises. It’s a near-universal rule owing to the fact that virtually all goods and services involve the use of oil at some stage of the supply chain that brings them from producer to consumer.

The most unwelcome consequence of this rule is that when economies are in an already precarious situation, inflation-wise, higher oil prices are the last thing they need. And yet higher oil prices are exactly what the troubled U.S. and European economies are currently getting. And it might get worse.

The latest U.S. consumer price index revealed an increase of 3.5% for March on an annual basis. The number was higher than expected and immediately put an end to talk from Fed officials that the coming months could see the start of rate cuts after an extended series of hikes aimed at reining in the latest bout of worrying inflation that followed the pandemic and the start of the war in Ukraine—which happened to be marked by a surge in oil prices.

Continue Reading at OilPrice.com…

What the Upper-Middle-Class Left Doesn’t Get About Inflation

Liberal politicians and economists don’t seem to recognize the everyday harms of rising costs.

by Michael Powell
The Atlantic

Democratic Party analysts and left-leaning economists have had quite enough of their fellow Americans’ complaints. As a striking number of poll respondents express alarm, despair even, about the rising cost of living during Joe Biden’s presidency, experts shake their heads. Don’t people realize that jobs are plentiful, wages are rising, and inflation is in retreat?

Few have struck this chord more insistently than Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize–winning economist and liberal New York Times columnist. In a February column titled “Vibes, Vegetables and Vitriol,” he suggested that inflation is no longer worrisome and backed up his view with field research.

Continue Reading at TheAtlantic.com…

Inflation Surged Higher in March, Reversing Some Progress Made in Cooling Prices

The fight to reduce inflation has struck a rough patch in recent months.

by Max Zahn
ABC News

Consumer prices rose 3.5% in March compared to a year ago, accelerating markedly from the previous month and reversing some of the progress achieved in a two-year fight to cool inflation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed. The finding matched economists’ expectations.

Price increases have cooled dramatically from a peak of about 9%, but inflation still stands more than a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

A spike in housing and gasoline prices at the outset of this year has helped prolong the nation’s bout of elevated inflation. Meanwhile, economic performance has been robust, boosting consumer demand and putting upward pressure on prices.

The latest finding indicated an uptick from the 3.2% annual inflation rate recorded in February.

Continue Reading at ABCNews.Go.com…

Fact Check: Biden Blames Inflation On Trump

by John Carney
Breitbart.com

Claim: President Joe Biden claimed on Wednesday that inflation was “skyrocketing” when he took office.

“Look we have dramatically reduced inflation from 9% down to close to 3% we’re in a situation where we’re better situated and we were we took office, where we inflation was skyrocketing,” Biden said Wednesday at a White House press conference.

The president was reacting to the latest report on the consumer price index, which showed inflation rose at an annualized rate of 4.6 percent in March, the fourth consecutive month in which inflation has exceeded expectations.

Verdict: False.

Continue Reading at Breitbart.com…

Inflation Lies & Monetary Madness

Dive into the world of economic truths with us on this week’s Finance University, as Paul and I unravel the deeper impact of inflation beyond the government’s portrayal.

by Dr. Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity

Welcome to this week’s Finance University episode.

This week, we’re tackling a hot-button issue: inflation. With government figures often underplaying the real impact of inflation on everyday lives, it’s essential to peel back the layers and understand the true picture. We’ll be joined as usual by Paul Kiker from Kiker Wealth Management, bringing his expertise to our lively conversation. Whether you’re grappling with rising costs or curious about how inflation shapes our economy, this episode is a must-watch. So, set a reminder, tune in, and let’s explore these critical financial issues together.

Continue Reading at PeakProsperity.com…

Americans Now Worry About Out-Of-Control Power Bill Inflation

from Zero Hedge

Tens of millions of Americans are having trouble paying their power bills as residential electricity inflation continues to run rampant. The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (February’s print) shows that three out of every four major cities in the US had power prices rise for residential customers.

“Food has been a worry, but now electricity is the worry,” 75yo Alfredo De Avila told Bloomberg, adding, “Unless you want to go to candles and firewood, we have no other choice but to bite the bullet and pay.”

For the Oakland, California, resident, already battered by high taxes, food inflation, elevated fuel pump prices, and out-of-control violent crime, the latest price increase from the state’s largest electricity utlity, PG&E Corp, of a 13% jump in power bills in January, plus more expected rises this year, could put the retiree under more financial pressure.

Continue Reading at ZeroHedge.com…

The ‘Supercore’ Inflation Measure Shows Fed May Have a Real Problem On Its Hands

Markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

by Brian Evans
CNBC.com

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index report rattled Wall Street Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a measure of underlying prices.

Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

Continue Reading at CNBC.com…

Two Things About the PPI Today: The March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, and the 3-Month Rates All Jumped

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

Including by 7.9% annualized for the not-seasonally adjusted PPI, worst since June 2022. So we’ll take a look.

The Producer Price Index data got a lot of attention today because it didn’t increase as sharply as a month ago, and so that was seen as a relief on the inflation front.

The thing is these figures are very volatile from month to month, as the blue lines in the charts below show, and the smaller increases in March on top of the spikes in February weren’t nearly small enough, and all the three-month rates – the month-to-month increases in January, February, and March combined – that iron out some of the month-to-month volatility, jumped.

Continue Reading at WolfStreet.com…

Powell’s Soft-Landing Dream in Danger as Traders Hedge Inflation

by Denitsa Tsekova and Lu Wang
Yahoo! Finance

(Bloomberg) — Signs that inflation has yet to release its grip on markets have simmered for weeks. Now they’re boiling over after Wednesday’s hotter-than-forecast consumer price index sent stocks and bonds reeling.

With gold, oil and cryptocurrency rallying of late amid fresh demand for inflation hedges, the March CPI report unleashed a rout across Wall Street. Yields on 10-year Treasuries topped 4.5% for the first time since November while the S&P 500 closed around 1% lower. Energy companies were the best-performing names, a reminder of the post-pandemic playbook when inflation trading was ascendant. Brent crude climbed back above $90 as geopolitical tensions heightened.

With the commodity rally stoking broader cost pressures, a cohort of traders is starting to doubt that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be able to engineer a soft economic landing, whereby the business cycle expands at a healthy clip just as inflation eases.

Continue Reading at Finance.Yahoo.com…