from King World News
Yet another gold bull catalyst is emerging. Get ready for another wave of inflation because it’s definitely on the way.
April 18 (King World News) – Peter Boockvar: Initial jobless claims totaled 212k, 3k less than expected and unchanged with the week before. The 4 week average of 215k was also flat with last week. Continuing claims were also little changed but holding above 1.8mm at 1.812mm, near the highest since November 2021…
by Jeff Lukens
American Thinker
It has become a speculative game in the blogosphere to predict what black swan calamities could lead to a breakdown in civil order and the imposition of some form of martial law. Wars and rumors of war abound. We have already seen a container ship mysteriously knocking down a bridge and closing a key port. Other such scenarios include massive cyber-attacks that shut down the grid and block communication and transportation networks nationwide. The speculation on the variations of such events is virtually endless.
However, one crisis is no black swan and is entirely expected, already happening, and growing in scale by the day. That would be the ballooning debt crisis. If Washington does not change its free-spending ways, the debt will become a catastrophe of devastating proportions that will tear the nation apart. So long as Congress continues its multi-trillion-dollar deficit spending, we will have a financial death spiral, similar to events a century ago in the Weimar Republic of Germany.
by Pete Schroeder
Global News, Canada
The International Monetary Fund is cautioning against overexuberance in markets as investors look for central bankers to pull off a “soft landing” in their years-long inflation battle.
In its latest semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF noted that markets have turned “quite optimistic” since the October edition, when investors were still recovering from spring turmoil in the banking sector.
Now, downside risks are receding, but the IMF is cautioning against complacency, noting that stretched valuations across a range of asset classes, geopolitical tensions, and rising debt levels could all pose problems if central bankers have to keep rates higher for longer to contain stubborn inflation.
by Ian Hanchett
Breitbart.com
During an interview with Nexstar Media that took place on Tuesday and was released on Wednesday, President Joe Biden stated that inflation “is being stubborn and not going down to the 2% we need. But, it’s significantly different,” than where it was and “the thing that really affects people’s lives are all the small things that add up to big numbers for people, all these junk fees.”
Nexstar Washington Correspondent Reshad Hudson asked, “[R]ight now, for many Americans, life is too expensive. Are you concerned that stubborn inflation will hurt your re-election bid?”
Biden responded, “Well, look, we’ve brought down inflation considerably, by over two-thirds, and it is being stubborn and not going down to the 2% we need. But, it’s significantly different, number one. Number two, the thing that really affects people’s lives are all the small things that add up to big numbers for people, all these junk fees.”
The White House argued that Donald Trump’s agenda would make inflation worse. The evidence to bolster the argument is overwhelming.
by Steve Benen
MSNBC
Exactly two years ago this week, as post-pandemic inflation emerged as a leading public concern, Donald Trump appeared on Fox News and was asked what he’d do to address inflation if he were in the White House. The Republican gave a long, meandering, and wildly dishonest answer, which didn’t even try to address the underlying question.
It was a two-minute exchange that made a simple truth unavoidable: The former president wants to complain about inflation, but he doesn’t have the foggiest idea how he’d go about making it better.
Trump does, however, have plenty of ideas about how to make inflation worse.
by Craig Torres
BNN Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled policymakers will wait longer than previously anticipated to cut interest rates following a series of surprisingly high inflation readings.
Powell pointed to the lack of additional progress made on inflation after the rapid decline seen at the end of last year, noting it will likely take more time for officials to gain the necessary confidence that price growth is headed toward the Fed’s 2% goal before lower borrowing costs.
If price pressures persist, he said, the Fed can keep rates steady for “as long as needed.”
by James Picerno
Investing.com
Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.
The Treasury market has been effectively making the same case for weeks, but when the top central banker says it out loud the crowd notices.
“More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal,” Powell said at a conference yesterday (Apr. 16).
“The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”
The 10-year Treasury yield is paying attention and rose to 4.67%, the highest since Nov. 6. The question is whether the benchmark rate is still trading in a range. Or is it poised to take out its previous peak of roughly 5% that was set in October?
Washington (AFP) – The US Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation could take “longer than expected,” the head of the US central bank said Tuesday, further paring back the chances of early rate cuts.
from France24
The Fed has been battling rising prices with interest rate hikes since 2022, lifting its key lending rate to a 23-year high as it looks to hit its long-term inflation target of two percent.
But three months of higher inflation data since the start of 2024 have threatened to undermine the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, with one senior Fed policymaker recently suggesting that rates could remain at their current levels until 2025.
“The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during an event in Washington on Tuesday that was streamed online.
by Breitbart News
Breitbart.com
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned Tuesday that persistently elevated inflation will likely delay any Fed interest rate cuts until later this year, opening the door to a period of higher-for-longer rates.
“Recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence” that inflation is coming fully under control and “instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said during a panel discussion at the Wilson Center.
“If higher inflation does persist,” he said, “we can maintain the current level of (interest rates) for as long as needed.”
by Joshua R. Hendrickson
The American Institute for Economic Research
In the aftermath of the pandemic, the United States experienced the highest rates of inflation of the last four decades. More recently, inflation rates have been trending lower. Nonetheless, a number of economists have been surprised to observe that consumers aren’t very happy despite signs that the inflation rate is on a trajectory towards the Federal Reserve’s target of two percent. Although a number of economists have been quick to dismiss consumer pessimism or explain that things are actually quite good, a recent paper by economists at Harvard and the IMF offers an explanation for pessimism: perhaps consumer measures of the cost of living differ from the price indices that economists use to measure inflation.
A price index is just a weighted average of prices. People often reference the price index as capturing “the cost of living.” This is indeed the purpose of constructing a price index.