by Jason Schenker
Forbes
Consumer inflation accelerated in October 2024. However, the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on December 18 are still high. October year-on-year total Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%, while total Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation accelerated to 2.3% from 2.1%, and core PCE inflation accelerated to 2.8% from 2.7%. Core CPI was unchanged in October, but it was sticky and more elevated at 3.3%. Despite elevated consumer inflation rates, the chance of a 0.25% Fed rate cut on December 18 was 66% on November 30.
October CPI Consumer Inflation Rates Are Elevated
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the October CPI showed an acceleration in year-on-year total CPI to 2.6% from 2.4%. Although CPI consumer inflation rates have fallen, they are still not at the Fed’s 2% target, and year-on-year total CPI is unlikely to get back down to 2% until sometime in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, year-on-year core CPI was unchanged and elevated at 3.3% in October.