by John Mauldin
GoldSeek
Last week we published a chart of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which had just dropped sharply to a -2.4% real GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025. This model can be volatile. Its latest big swing was mostly an artifact of spiking gold imports. Economic growth prospects do seem to have dimmed considerably, though.
My friend Danielle DiMartino Booth follows data like a hawk. Many of you are familiar with her. Today I’m sharing her recent essay showing that inflation may be a lot lower than the current headline suggests. I was talking with David Bahnsen last night. We both agreed that the way the BLS calculates inflation, especially the lag in housing reporting, makes inflation appear artificially high. Danielle’s work really hits that home.
Danielle’s piece is long enough that I will make a two-part series from it, with my comments next week.