What Can Christmas Dinner Tell Us About Inflation?

by Finn McEvoy
Economics Observatory

Digital microdata reveal nuance in the price of the holiday season’s most important meal, while historical records highlight how the cost of key ingredients has changed over decades.

The typical Christmas dinner is set to cost between £26 and £36 a head this year depending on where you buy your turkey, sprouts, spuds and so on. That’s according to the BBC, but the whole media is awash with such stories this week. Kantar’s estimate of precisely £32.57 features in The Guardian; the Financial Times says that costs have risen 20% since the pandemic; while The Sun is promoting offers for all the Christmas vegetables you need for just 15 pence.

Analysts and media outlets are coming to these varied conclusions by making different assumptions. No two Christmas dinners are alike. The choice of meat (or not), the range of vegetables, the type of stuffing and the volume of gravy to cover it all matter.

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