from Meet Kevin
Gold Steadies Before U.S. Inflation Data as Recession Fears Linger
by Sybilla Gross
BNN Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Gold steadied ahead of key US data prints this week, with traders focused on whether they will reinforce bets the Federal Reserve will soon pivot to monetary easing.
Bullion was trading near $2,430 an ounce in Asia after falling 0.5% last week, as markets braced for the release of the consumer price index report due Wednesday. The figure is expected to have risen 0.2% from June.
Such a modest move would be unlikely to derail the central bank from a widely anticipated pivot to lower rates next month, as it also contemplates the need to avoid recessionary risks.
Fed President Throws Doubt Onto September Rate Cut Wall Street is Desperate For
by Eleanor Pringle
Yahoo! Finance
Speaking at the Kansas Bankers Association annual meeting Thursday, Schmid didn’t drop any of the hints Wall Street analysts might be hoping for.
Namely, they want to see a growing sense of confidence among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members that inflation is firmly on track down to the 2% benchmark, meaning the base rate will soon be cut.
Trillion-Dollar Surprise in the Inflation Reduction Act
by Paul Mueller
The American Institute for Economic Research
The national debt surpassed a mind-boggling $35 trillion last week — approximately $100,000 for every man, woman, and child living in the United States. This means a family of four’s share of public debt, ~$400,000, is likely more than they owe on the mortgage of their house. Runaway government spending is no surprise. What is surprising is that one bill passed a couple years ago may end up costing trillions, with a “t,” more than the public was told. That bill is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Many have rightly called the IRA ‘the New Green Deal Lite.’ The massive bill was primarily geared towards funding green energy projects. Some of that funding took the form of direct subsidies for conservation and energy efficiency projects. The main goal was to divert hundreds of billions of dollars into green energy projects. The uncapped lion’s share of the cost comes in the form of special tax credits through the internal revenue code.
People Are Just Trying to Survive the Food Inflation
from King World News
People are just trying to survive the food inflation at this point as consumers have continued to tighten their belts.
People Have Hit Their Limit With High Food Prices
August 8 (King World News) – Gerald Celente: With consumers turning away from national brands and eating at home instead of out, food companies are scrambling to win back their customers while also trying to protect their margins and what have been comfortable profits over the past three years.
Eggs, Gasoline and Car Insurance: Where Inflation Has Hit Americans Hardest
by Drew Desilver
Pew Research Center
As the U.S. economy began recovering from coronavirus-related shortages and shutdowns, consumer prices surged faster than they had in more than four decades. Many Americans currently see inflation as one of the nation’s top problems.
The government gauges inflation mainly by looking at the prices of a “market basket” of more than 200 goods and services and evaluating how they’ve changed over time. Several inflation measures are based on this price data, but the most widely cited is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Since the start of 2020, that measure topped out at 9.1% in June 2022 – the fastest year-over-year increase since November 1981.
Cramer Explains Why Food Delivery Stocks Are Doing Well Even as Consumers Rebel Against Inflation
CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday told investors food delivery isn’t a habit consumers want to break, even as they feel the weight of inflation.
by Julie Coleman
CNBC.com
CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday analyzed why food delivery companies are seeing success while many of their consumer discretionary peers suffer as users continue to feel the burden of inflation.
He said food delivery is a habit consumers don’t want to break — something they seem more willing to spend on than other luxuries.
“DoorDash and Uber Eats and Instacart can only put up numbers like these because food delivery has become a calcified habit for so many consumers, people who value their time as much as they value their money,” Cramer said. “No wonder people don’t have excess cash to throw around — they’re spending it all on DoorDash.”
Fed’s Schmid Says He’s More Confident Inflation Heading to 2% Goal
by Reuters
Yahoo! Finance
“Given the multi-decade shock to inflation that we have experienced, we should be looking for the worst in the data rather than the best,” Schmid said, noting that prices can be volatile and the Fed needs “longer periods” to be sure of inflation’s path.
Different Household, Different Inflation Rate
by Regina Kiss and Georg Strasser
CEPR
Households differ considerably in terms of the inflation they experience at any point in time. This column examines the nature and sources of inflation differences for purchases of supermarket goods across a large panel of French and German households. The main reasons for the differences are that prices (and thus price changes) differ from place to place and that households do not all buy the same products. Households adjust their purchases over time, but not enough to offset these differences.
The differences between households in terms of their exposure to inflation have gained a lot of attention, especially since the recent jump in the cost of living. Their different inflation experiences feed into different inflation perceptions and expectations (D’Acunto et al. 2021, Weber et al. 2022). In turn, this can mean that households seemingly react differently to aggregate inflation. Moreover, systematic inflation differences among households can have distributional effects. For example, because poorer households spend a larger share of their income on food, an increase in food prices reduces their purchasing power relatively more.
What to Expect From the Next CPI Inflation Report
by Simon Moore
Forbes
July’s Consumer Price Index inflation report is expected to continue the pattern of disinflation seen in recent months. Current expectations for a September rate cut are relatively high, so it is unlikely that anything but the most alarmingly high CPI inflation data would prompt the Federal Open Market Committee to avoid a broadly anticipated interest rate cut at their next scheduled meeting on September 18.
Release Timing
July’s Consumer Price Index inflation data will be released on August 14, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. June’s headline CPI data saw -0.1% monthly price change and 0.1% for core CPI. Core CPI removes moves in food and energy prices. June’s CPI report posted 3% headline CPI annual inflation and 3.3% core inflation.
The Fed Prescribes Stool Softeners for America
by Peter Schiff
Schiff Sovereign
On Wednesday, March 8, 2023, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was sworn in for testimony in front of members of Congress to deliver remarks about the state of the US economy.
Inflation had been raging for well over a year at that point, and, in response, the Fed had rapidly increased interest rates to levels not seen since 2007.
But nothing happens in a vacuum. The Fed cannot expect to jack up rates without some major consequences. And concerned members of Congress asked the Chairman about these potential consequences.
But Chairman Powell played them off, practically dismissing any risk to their raising rates and ‘tightening’ monetary policy, saying “nothing about the data suggests we’ve tightened too much. . .”