from Lindey Glenn
Trump’s Attempt to Fire Lisa Cook Makes Stagflation in the U.S. More Likely, Strategist Says
Stagflation is becoming a bigger risk as Trump pushes to fire Lisa Cook, Komal Sri-Kumar said.
by Jennifer Sor
MSN
[…] Komal Sri-Kumar — the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies — is blaming President Donald Trump’s latest escalation of his feud with the Federal Reserve, which saw the president attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Tuesday.
Sri-Kumar said that the odds of stagflation, a dreaded scenario where inflation heats up while growth in the economy slows down, are higher now.
He pointed to the recent rise in long-term yields in the economy, which he sees as a sign investors are bracing for more inflation in the future. Paired with signs of a sluggish economy, a stagflationary dynamic is brewing, Sri-Kumar said.
Gold Little Changed with Inflation Data in Focus
by Sarah Qureshi and Anushree Ashish Mukherjee
Reuters.com
Aug 27 (Reuters) – Gold was little changed on Wednesday as investors closely awaited upcoming inflation data for clues on interest rate cuts, while concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence lingered after U.S. President Donald Trump tried to fire a Fed governor.
Spot gold was up 0.1% to $3,394.49 per ounce at 02:22 p.m. ET (18:22 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.5% higher at $3,448.6.
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday and could offer cues on the interest-rate path. Economists polled by Reuters expect the PCE price index (USPCEY=ECI), opens new tab to rise 2.6% in July, matching June’s rise.
Here Are the 10 States Where ‘Stagflation’ is the Biggest Threat
Research shows ‘red’ states and ‘blue’ states have different economic issues
by Mark Huffman
Consumer Affairs
Of all the economic conditions, economists generally fear “stagflation” the most. That’s when the economy becomes stagnant and doesn’t grow, but inflation keeps rising. The last time the U.S. had a case of stagflation was the 1970s, and it wasn’t pleasant.
While the U.S. economy has so far avoided that fate, new research from National Business Capital has identified the top 10 states where stagflation is a real threat.
California has emerged as the state most at risk of falling into stagflation in 2025, with findings suggesting that Pacific states are bearing the brunt of stagflationary pressures. The Northeast is not far behind.
By contrast, “red” states are seeing less inflation but are struggling with weaker growth, creating a different but equally destabilizing form of economic stress.
The Fed is Cooked. Powell Folds.
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
William Martin probably knew he was in deep trouble when he boarded the plane to President Lyndon Johnson’s Texas ranch.
As Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he had just warned that the US economy was overheating—and that the boom could end in a crash.
But he probably didn’t expect the visit to end in a physical altercation, with the President of the United States literally shoving him against a wall and shouting: “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care!”
It was 1965. The Vietnam War was raging. Johnson was desperate to keep funding the war effort and his expansive “Great Society” domestic programs. He needed low interest rates to keep the borrowing cost manageable and the economy growing.
Jerome Powell Finally Sees the ‘Stag’ and the ‘Flation’
by Sam Bourgi
Investors Observer
In May 2024, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he didn’t see the “stag” or the “flation” in the U.S. economy, dismissing the notion that America was entering a period of stagflation.
Fast forward a year, and the inflation picture looks very different.
At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Powell acknowledged that risks are now pulling in opposite directions. “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are tilted to the downside,” he said.
That’s a line that market newsletter The Kobeissi Letter called “a long way of saying ‘stagflation.’
Core vs Headline: What Really Drives Inflation Calculations
What is core CPI, and why does it holds such weight in shaping economic policy and market expectations?
by Anthony Storer, Bob Thomas, Timothy G. Nash
The Daily Economy
For decades, economists and central bankers have relied more on the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) than the headline CPI because Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices; this permits a clearer read on long-term inflation trends, which is critical for setting interest rates and guiding economic policy.
Think of it like steering a ship: if you focus only on the choppy surface waves (headline inflation), you’ll get tossed around by every sudden storm in food or energy markets. Core CPI lets you read the underlying current and where the economy is truly headed.
Rising Inflation and Stagflation Risks in 2025: Implications for the Fed, Markets, and Asset Allocation
2025 U.S. economy faces stagflation risks as Fed maintains 2% inflation target amid persistent inflation divergence and Trump-era tariffs.
by Isaac Lane
AInvest
The U.S. economy in 2025 is navigating a treacherous crossroads. While the Federal Reserve has bolstered its policy credibility through a revised monetary framework, persistent inflation divergence and the lingering shadow of Trump-era tariffs are creating a volatile backdrop for markets. Investors must now grapple with the risk of stagflation—a scenario where high inflation coexists with weak growth—and adjust their strategies accordingly.
The Fed’s Credibility: A Shield Against Unanchored Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy framework, culminating in the August 22 update to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals, reaffirmed a 2% inflation target and emphasized flexibility in responding to supply shocks. This credibility has been critical in anchoring long-term inflation expectations, even as short-term pressures persist.
The Fed’s Coming Stagflation Trap
Stagflation risk is rising.
by Samuel Smith
Seeking Alpha
While headline inflation has fallen from its peak earlier this decade, the federal funds rate still sits at very elevated levels relative to the past several decades, and inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.
At the same time, lingering concerns of slowing economic growth—and even the potential for a recession—persist due to disruptions caused by tariffs as well as the burden of heavy debt and elevated interest rates. This puts the economy at risk of falling into stagflation, where weak economic growth occurs simultaneously with sticky inflation.
This should not be surprising given that the U.S. has experienced years of money printing and artificially low interest rates.
Chocolate and Butter Prices Help Drive Food Inflation to 18-Month High
by Amy Walker
BBC, Former home of child rapist, Jimmy Savile
The rising cost of chocolate, butter and eggs has helped drive food price inflation to its highest in 18 months, a survey says.
Food inflation hit 4.2% this month, compared with 4% in July, according to the British Retail Consortium latest shop price monitor. It is higher than at any time since March of last year, when it was 3.7%.
The figure echoes separate recent data from the Office for National Statistics, which found the cost of everyday food items rising by a similar amount over the last year.
Helen Dickinson, the BRC’s chief executive, said there was some respite for parents as the new academic year approaches, with cheaper clothing, books and stationery.
Continue Reading at BBC.com, Former home of child rapist, Jimmy Savile…
Silver Supply Tightens as Inflation and Monetary Shifts Loom
by Money Metals
Silver Seek
Mike Maharrey of the Money Metals Podcast sat down with David Morgan, CEO of The Morgan Report and author of The Silver Manifesto, to discuss the state of the silver and gold markets, inflation, central banks, and the future of global financial systems.
Silver Consolidation Near $40
Silver briefly touched $40/oz before consolidating around $38. Morgan welcomed this “stair-step” pattern, arguing it’s healthier than a parabolic surge. He expects sideways movement through summer, with potential breakout momentum after Labor Day (Sept. 22) or sooner if geopolitical shocks occur.
Industrial demand could become the catalyst. With deficits persisting for 3–4 years, Morgan highlighted that only about 1.3 billion ounces exist in bar form, and roughly 600 million ounces are already locked in ETFs. Since industry consumes ~600 million ounces annually, the market effectively has just one year of above-ground supply in commercial bars.