from Arcadia Economics
Cheap Icons Like Costco Hot Dog, Arizona Tea Defy Inflation
by Kelly Tyko
Axios
At a time when grocery bills keep climbing, a few brands are clinging to nostalgia-priced staples — like Costco’s $1.50 hot dog combo and AriZona’s 99-cent iced tea cans.
Why it matters: These inflation-proof items are more than just cheap eats — they’re deliberate brand strategies.
The big picture: By holding the line on price, companies trade margin for loyalty, signaling to customers that “value” is part of their DNA.
Why is the Fed Revising its Framework?
Chair Powell maintains that the framework “worked just fine” over the past five years, but that changes underway seem to admit to past mistakes.
by William J. Luther
The Daily Economy
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to release the details of the Fed’s framework review at this week’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The Fed’s framework specifies the objective of monetary policy — that is, how the Fed intends to respond to changes in inflation, unemployment, and production. In other words, it determines how the Fed will conduct monetary policy.
The Fed reviews its framework every four to five years. The current review began in January 2025. In addition to discussions at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the review included Fed Listens events and the Thomas Laubach Research Conference. Back in January, Powell said Fed officials will “be open to new ideas and critical feedback and we will take on board lessons of the last five years in determining our findings.”
Peter Navarro: We’ve Proven ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation, They Cause Growth’
by Hannah Knudsen
Breitbart.com
The Trump administration has proven that tariffs do not cause inflation, Peter Navarro, senior counselor to the president for trade and manufacturing at the White House, said during an appearance on Breitbart News Saturday.
Navarro said that President Trump has “completely restructured an international trading environment which was systemically against the American people, American workers, [and] American businesses.”
“It was a system which, by rules of the WTO, the World Trade Organization wrote, allows countries to systematically charge higher tariffs and non-tariff barriers, run massive trade surpluses with us, which add up to more than a trillion dollar a year trade deficit for us, and Donald Trump has turned that on its head,” he explained.
Powell’s Last Stand
Plus: Federal bureaucracy gets a redesign, Robert Moses messing things up (still), Syrian immigrant unemployment data, and more…
by Liz Wolfe
Reason.com
Powell’s last speech: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to give (what will probably be) his last address today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, laying out how he believes the central bank should help manage the economy in an increasingly weird time—and, possibly, tackling President Donald Trump’s increasing attacks on the Fed’s independence, and the pressure placed on them to lower the cost of borrowing.
With a labor market deteriorating (and recent jobs numbers revisions signaling this has been going on for a few months longer than some observers realized), it’s possible Powell will portend rate cuts, which the Trump administration has been requesting. But the Fed’s job isn’t to curry favor with the administration through its policies (something Powell rightly chafes at). It’s to manage two massive risks and the interplay between them: inflation, rising with tariffs, and slowing job growth.
Fed Abandons Inflation Overshoot Strategy, Returning to Simpler Goal
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
The Federal Reserve on Friday discarded a central element of the framework it adopted five years ago, formally abandoning a strategy that sought to allow inflation to run modestly above its two percent target in certain circumstances.
The change, announced in a revised statement of the Fed’s longer-run goals and outlined in remarks by Chair Jerome H. Powell, reflects lessons from the turbulent post-pandemic years, when prices rose at the fastest pace in four decades and remained above target for more than four years.
“The idea of an intentional, moderate inflation overshoot had proved irrelevant,” Powell said in a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, noting that the overshoot concept—introduced in 2020 amid fears of chronically weak growth and low inflation—was quickly overtaken by events.
Fed Chair Powell Says Inflation, Hiring Slowdown Pose ‘Challenging Situation’
Eight months have elapsed since the Fed last adjusted interest rates.
by Max Zahn
ABC News
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank faces a “challenging situation” as a hiring slowdown coincides with tariff-driven price increases, putting pressure on both sides of the Fed’s dual mission to maximize employment and control inflation.
Speaking at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said “the effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible.” He added that the Fed expects those price increases to “accumulate over the coming months.”
Still, Powell said, the “balance of risks appears to shifting” in light of a hiring slowdown made clear in a weak jobs report earlier this year that included sharp downward revisions of job gains over recent months.
Powell Makes Room for Rate Cut. Fed Kills “Average Inflation” Targeting That Caused So Much Damage When Inflation Raged.
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Fed to “proceed carefully” with changes to policy stance amid heavy concerns about rising inflation.
Powell’s speech today at the Jackson Hole conference had two major components: Short-term monetary policy and for the long term, the Fed’s new monetary policy framework.
Monetary policy: “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” but “carefully.”
Powell made room for a rate cut in September, as “the balance of risks appears to be shifting” to concerns about the labor market.
But it was tempered with lots of concerns about inflation, including his projection that the 12-month core PCE price index for July, to be released in a week, would accelerate further to 2.9%.
Powell Signals Fed May Cut Rates Soon Even as Inflation Risks Remain
by Christopher Rugaber
Financial Post
JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door ever so slightly to lowering a key interest rate in the coming months but gave no hint on the timing of a move and suggested the central bank will proceed cautiously as it continues to evaluate the impact of tariffs and other policies on the economy.
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In a high-profile speech closely watched at the White House and on Wall Street, Powell said that there are risks of both rising unemployment and stubbornly higher inflation. Yet he suggested that with hiring sluggish, the job market could weaken further.
“The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” he said, a reference to his concerns about weaker job gains and a more direct sign that the Fed is considering a rate cut than he has made in previous comments.
U.S. Manufacturing Heats Up Right Along With Tariff Inflation. What Does it Mean?
The captains of industry are giving it all they’ve got, and inflation is heating up.
by David Haggith
GoldSeek
So much for recession. US manufacturing activity just soared to its highest since 2022 upon strong sales, but is this a boom or a bust? The details are an interesting tale of top-heavy tariffs and overheating prices. While the flurry of activity could mean tariffs are bringing business back to the US, it may mean something decidedly different. I’ll lay it out, and you decide. The closing point, I think, will be that it is too early to tell, but let’s dig in to see why things are getting hot because there may be some danger hidden here:
One month after unexpectedly sliding into contraction for the first time in 2025, moments ago the S&P Manufaturing PMI even more unexpectedly soared from 49.8 to 53.3 … smashing expectations of another decline … and printing well above the highest economist forecast.
‘There’s No Hiding’: Powell Faces Daunting Options in Pivotal Speech
The economic dilemma comes on top of an extraordinary, high-pressure political situation the Fed chair faces, as Trump relentlessly demands lower rates.
by Victoria Guida
Politico
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is in a tense moment — and it’s not only because of the unyielding attacks he’s facing from President Donald Trump over his refusal to cut interest rates.
Powell is staring at the double-barreled threats of rising prices and slowing growth — potentially the early stages of a phenomenon known as stagflation that the U.S. hasn’t seen in four decades. And at some point, he will have to decide which is the bigger danger.
There’s a real risk of a nasty outcome in either direction: If he holds rates too high for too long, job losses could spike, and the economy could even tip into a recession. If he cuts rates too much, he could reignite inflation in an economy that hasn’t entirely recovered from the last bout after the Covid pandemic struck. It’s not at all clear which scenario is more likely.