from Rebel Capitalist
China and Germany Are Leading the Next Round of Global Inflation
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
Between press conference bust ups, tariff announcements, peace deals, and cryptocurrency reserve proclamations, it has been a busy month and a half.
Despite all this, our global economic outlook remains relatively unchanged: we’re still anticipating a pretty serious bout of inflation around the world, and I’ll explain why.
Inflation isn’t hard to understand. We all see it when we go to the grocery store, fill up our cars, or pay for tuition, daycare, or medical services.
The pandemic was the perfect illustration of how this happens; governments worldwide locked people in their homes, halting the production of goods and services. Meanwhile, they borrowed and ‘printed’ trillions of dollars, flooding the economy with money.
Byron Donalds Confronts CNN Host For Suddenly Caring About High Prices After Network ‘Ignored’ Inflation Under Biden
by Nicole Silverio
DailyCaller.com
Republican Florida Rep. Byron Donalds called out CNN Thursday for its double standard in its coverage of high prices during the Biden-era versus President Donald Trump’s administration.
Following the postponement of tariffs on Mexico, CNN host Pamela Brown asked the congressman about the negative impacts that Trump’s tariffs are having on the markets and U.S. businesses. In response, Donalds accused CNN of allowing the former President Joe Biden administration “to get away with” inflation and high prices throughout his presidency, but is now heavily focusing on the possible economic impacts of Trump’s tariffs on Canada and China.
“Well look, I’m gonna repeat myself a little bit here. It is important that we stabilize not just our economic relationships around the globe, but also the fact that we gotta secure our border and stop the flow of fentanyl,” Donalds said. “Give Donald Trump the opportunity to actually negotiate with the Mexican president and with Canada and with China, you ought to give them that opportunity.
The Biggest Threat to the U.S. Dollar Just Happened
by David Russell
GoldSeek
It’s World Book Day, and it got me thinking about the books that shaped the way we see the world. For me, it was Bill Bonner’s Empire of Debt that first made me realise the dangers of runaway credit growth and why gold plays such a critical role in preserving wealth.
It helped me start putting the pieces together—and watching today’s markets, those lessons have never felt more relevant. Meanwhile, Stephen Flood, our co-founder and Chairman’s favorite book is Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari.
To celebrate World Book Day, we’re giving away both Sapiens and Empire of Debt to one lucky winner! To enter, just click here and tell us your favorite book on economics, finance, or investing. What book changed the way you think about money, markets, or the economy?
Fed’s Powell Gets Chance to Address Trade War, Stagflation Fears
by Howard Schneider
Reuters.com
NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) – A soft landing from inflation may still be in sight, but when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks in New York on Friday he will be facing a tangled set of new risks to that long-sought goal, from a global trade war that could reignite price pressures to hints public expectations may be shifting in a bad way for the U.S. central bank.
Powell will deliver his remarks to an economic conference just ahead of the communications blackout for the Fed’s March 18-19 policy meeting. It will be his chance to publicly assess the still-developing economic impact of the expansive tariffs President Donald Trump has slapped on imports from major U.S. trading partners, with more expected, the new administration’s efforts to downsize the federal government and contract spending, and stricter immigration rules.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Inflation Outlook Halts Rate Cut Odds
The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a decline in ECB rate cut expectations.
by Saqib Iqbal
Forex Crunch
The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a decline in ECB rate cut expectations after the central bank upgraded its inflation forecasts. As a result, the euro has extended gains to reach new highs. Meanwhile, market participants waited eagerly for the US monthly employment report, which will guide the outlook for Fed rate cuts.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps as expected. However, the euro rose after the central bank projections revealed an upgrade in the inflation outlook. Policymakers projected inflation at 2.3% this year, compared to the last forecast of 2.1%. As a result, market participants slashed bets for more ECB rate cuts. Currently, traders expect only two more cuts this year.
Furthermore, optimism about Germany’s new spending plans kept the euro in high spirits. A 50 billion euro fund will likely boost growth in the Eurozone. However, it might also lead to a spike in inflation that would cause the ECB to assume a more cautious stance.
The Controlled Demolition of the U.S. Dollar’s Reserve Status (Podcast)
by James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign
Even during the darkest moments of the Biden administration—the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan, 9% inflation, bureaucrats hell-bent on destroying the economy—I still said America’s problems were fixable.
But I didn’t see any hope in the previous administration or a prospective Kamala administration to fix things and only expected them to grow worse.
We’re now a month and a half into a new administration, and it’s fair to say some things are going very well.
There are others that, depending on your view, are not.
Is This the Beginning of the Second Wave of Inflation?
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Companies can’t pass on those higher prices? What a bummer. But if they can without losing sales, it’s off to the races. See 2021/2022.
Nearly every subindex of today’s ISM Services PMI grew in February, and many accelerated further from the January pace of growth. Among those that accelerated further: The overall Services PMI and the indexes for employment, new orders, and prices.
And so, the services economy, which dominates the US economy, grew in February at a decent clip, according to the report.
The index that declined at an accelerating pace were imports. And that would be a good thing.
Everyday Economics: Fed Caught Between Persistent Inflation, Cooling Jobs Market
by Orphe Divounguy
AOL
Construction Spending: A Temporary Setback or the Start of the Downturn?
Spending on construction projects surprised to the upside at the end of 2024, driven primarily by a rebound in residential construction. In December, residential construction spending reached an annualized $939.5 billion – 1.5% (±1.3%) above November’s revised $925.5 billion estimate. This aligns with the strong rebound in housing starts at the end of 2024.
However, January’s unusual winter freeze is expected to dampen spending. That said, anticipation of new tariffs may have pushed some investment forward, mitigating the expected decline – despite the drop in housing starts for January.
Inflation Picked Up in January, Latest BEA Data Show
The Core PCE Price Index increased at an annualized rate of 3.5% in January 2025, rising from 2.5% in the previous month.
by William J. Luther
The Daily Economy
Federal Reserve officials have warned that the disinflation process would be uneven. The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirms as much. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, grew at an annualized rate of 4.0 percent in January 2025, up from 3.6 percent in the prior month. PCEPI inflation has averaged 2.6 percent over the last six months and 2.5 percent over the last twelve months.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also picked up. Core PCEPI grew at an annualized rate of 3.5 percent in January 2025, up from 2.5 percent in the prior month. PCEPI inflation has averaged 2.6 percent over the last six months and 2.6 percent over the last twelve months.
Trump Promised a Balanced Budget. Don’t Believe It.
It’s great to have presidents talking about the need for a balanced budget, but Republicans are backing a plan that will increase borrowing.
by Eric Boehm
Reason.com
In light of one of the more outlandish claims that President Donald Trump made during Tuesday night’s joint address to Congress, an important reminder: There is no plan to balance the budget.
In fact, the budget framework currently making its way through Congress would likely widen the federal government’s budget deficit rather than reduce it.
“In the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget. We are going to balance it,” the president said midway through his 90-plus minute speech. The line got some of the loudest applause of the night from Republican lawmakers—which might be a small silver lining, as it indicates at least a rhetorical interest in fiscal responsibility.