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Warning Signs of Hyperinflation: Is the U.S. Following Venezuela’s Path?

by Gabriela Berrospi
Forbes

Many of us in the Latino community in the United States have firsthand knowledge of the devastating effects of hyperinflation, having seen it wreak havoc in countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Cuba and even my homeland, Peru—with Venezuela’s situation among the most severe. In the wake of a global pandemic, the U.S. economy faces a critical challenge that could reshape its future: a significant and long-term rise in inflation.

Since 2021, the cumulative inflation rate has soared to over 18%, with the current annual rate at about 3.5% at the time of writing. This steady price climb is reminiscent of the early stages of Venezuela’s economic meltdown, which began subtly and later spiraled into a catastrophic crisis. To analyze this situation, it is important to note the difference between deflation and disinflation. Deflation means prices are generally going down, while disinflation means inflation is going up—but at a slower rate. We are currently in a disinflation phase, which means inflation is not improving.

Continue Reading at Forbes.com…

Trump’s Plan to Supercharge Inflation

Voters believe Trump would handle the economy better than Biden. Economists think differently.

by Ronald Brownstein
The Atlantic

Among prominent economists, no one was more explicit than former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers in warning that President Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve Board risked igniting inflation by overstimulating the economy in 2021. Soaring prices over the next few years proved Summers correct.

Now Summers sees the risk of another price shock in the economic plans of former President Donald Trump. “There has never been a presidential platform so self-evidently inflationary as the one put forward by President Trump,” Summers told me in an interview this week. “I have little doubt that with the Trump program, we will see a substantial acceleration in inflation, unless somehow we get a major recession first.”

Continue Reading at TheAtlantic.com…

Super-Sized Prices! Here’s is How Much a Big Mac, Chick-fil-A Nuggets and Chipotle Burrito Cost Thanks to Inflation

by Graig Graziosi
Yahoo! Finance, Canada

Talk about super-sized prices!

Americans heading for a quick bite, or a guilty pleasure, are seeing sticker shock when they visit their favorite fast-food joint thanks to inflation. Many restaurants, such as McDonalds, Chipotle and others, have raised prices in recent years because of rising costs. Overall, the cost to eat out is up about 22 percent in the last year, according to federal data, and fast-food has not been immune.

Fast-food price also outpaced inflation, rising 41 percent since 2017. The consumer price index has risen by 35.9 percent during the same period.

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Projected Annual Inflation Rate in the United States From 2010 to 2028

[Ed. Note: We’ll be revisiting this prediction in the future. I think it’s going to age like fine milk.]

from Statista.com

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2028. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 4.5 percent in 2023.

The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here.

The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here.

Continue Reading at Statista.com…

NBC’s Memoli: Biden Team Has Given Up On Trying ‘to Fix the Inflation Problem’ and is Trying to Argue Style

by Ian Hanchett
Breitbart.com

On Friday’s edition of NBC’s “MTP Now,” NBC News White House Correspondent Mike Memoli stated that “the Biden team has seemed to concede that there’s nothing they’re going to be able to do to fix the inflation problem” and are trying to reframe things to a “stylistic” argument.

Memoli said, “Every single demographic, every poll shows the number one issue, cost of living, inflation. And the Biden team has seemed to concede that there’s nothing they’re going to be able to do to fix the inflation problem. So, they’re trying to make this a whose side are you on, who are you fighting for question. The president may have some economic announcements to make over the course of the rest of the year to try to say, we’re bringing costs down, we’re trying to forgive student loans to put more money in your pocket.

Continue Reading at Breitbart.com…

Fed’s Wait-and-See On Rate Cuts Supported by Worst 6-Month “Core” & “Core Services” PCE Inflation Since Mid-2023

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

Not just housing, but also other core services. However, durable goods inflation is back to normal.

The Fed’s favored “core” PCE price index, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy, jumped by 3.0% annualized in April from March (not annualized, 0.249%), well above the Fed’s target of 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. But it was a smaller increase than in the prior three months, though far hotter than in late 2023 (blue in the chart).

The six-month annualized core PCE price index, which irons out most of the erratic monthly squiggles, and which Powell cites a lot, accelerated to 3.2%, the worst increase since July last year (red).

Continue Reading at WolfStreet.com…

Deflation v Inflation v Stagflation – Misconceptions Clarified

by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics

Some people have a very hard time understanding that we are in a massive deflationary spiral; they think that rising prices simply means it is inflation and not deflation. Then they mistake stagflation for deflation and wonder why people are spending more on less. They only see prices, not disposable income, and certainly not economic growth and unemployment.

Prices rose sharply following the OPEC oil price hikes of the 1970s, but the sharp rise in energy crowded out other forms of spending, resulting in rising prices that had nothing to do with a speculative economic expansion but a deflationary contraction they called STAGFLATION occurred with rising prices and declining economic growth.

This is like Biden saying vaguely that he will press corporations to raise wages and lower prices. Great plan, which, as always, means absolutely nothing and illustrates that he has nothing to offer. Biden revealed his position that government is never the problem.

Continue Reading at ArmstrongEconomics.com…

Think Inflation is Done? Think Again!

by Alasdair MacLeod
Gold Money

A lethal combination of budget deficits and trade sanctions are going to be reflected in increasing price inflation for the US. And where the US goes, the rest of us follow.

In this article I focus on two reasons why inflation will rise leading to higher, not lower, interest rates and bond yields. The first is the destruction of credit’s value through its non-productive expansion, mainly by governments running budget deficits. The second has had almost no attention but is at least as serious: the consequences of the repatriation of supply chains being accelerated by trade tariffs and sanctions. I shall briefly comment on the first before turning my attention to the second.

Continue Reading at GoldMoney.com…

Hyperinflation and the Destruction of Human Personality

by Joseph T. Salerno
Mises.org

Economists and historians have clearly shown that the destruction of the value and function of money by hyperinflation makes economic calculation impossible and leads to economic and social disintegration and widespread poverty. What is not so clearly understood, even by many economists, is that during periods of rapid inflation, the inability to economically calculate undermines the very nature of property and causes a withering of the human personality, which is intimately connected with property ownership. By eliminating the means of appraising and rationally allocating one’s property, hyperinflation eliminates the very basis of independent human existence and personality under a system of social cooperation. The inevitable result is the dissolution of the society of voluntary contract and its replacement by a hegemonic order in which property and personality are collectivized.

The central role of money and property in the formation of the individual human personality under the division of labor has yet to be investigated in any depth, and I will not attempt to do this here. However, I will note that in speaking of the human personality, I am referring to what has been called, usually derisively, the “bourgeois personality.”

Continue Reading at Mises.org…

Inflation Pressures Lingering From Pandemic Are Keeping Fed Rate Cuts On Pause

by Christopher Rugaber
AP News

WASHINGTON (AP) — Hopes for interest rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve are steadily fading, with a stream of recent remarks by Fed officials underscoring their intention to keep borrowing costs high as long as needed to curb persistently elevated inflation.

A key reason for the delay in rate cuts is that the inflation pressures that are bedeviling the economy are being driven largely by lingering forces from the pandemic — for items ranging from apartment rents to auto insurance to hospital prices. Though Fed officials say they expect inflation in those areas to eventually cool, they’ve signaled that they’re prepared to wait as long as it takes.

Continue Reading at APNews.com…