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The Fed Isn’t Buying the Media’s Tariff Panic
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
Powell Refuses to Take the Media’s Tariff Panic Bait
The financial press is hyperventilating about Trump’s tariffs, but the Federal Reserve’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) makes clear the central bank isn’t buying the panic.
Instead, the Fed’s view is that the inflationary impact of tariffs will be both transitory and relatively small. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear during his press conference that while the Fed sees tariffs as contributing to higher inflation projections, they are far from the dominant factor.
“A good part of it is coming from tariffs, but we’ll be working and so will other forecasters to try to find the best possible way to separate non-tariff inflation from tariff inflation,” Powell said.
Powell Flirts Again with a Dangerous Way to Describe Inflation: ‘Transitory’
by Jennifer Schonberger
Yahoo! Finance
A fraught word resurfaced in the Federal Reserve’s lexicon again this week: “transitory.”
It came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who told reporters Wednesday his “base case” is that higher inflation stemming from President Trump’s tariffs will be “transitory” — reviving memories of how central bank policymakers talked about inflation during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Because Fed officials expected pandemic-era inflation to be transitory, they argued there was no reason to raise rates aggressively — an expectation that turned out to be misguided as inflation rose to a four-decade high in 2022. The Fed eventually mounted the most aggressive campaign to bring inflation down since the 1970s.
This is Wild…
from King World News
As we near the end of the first quarter of 2025, this is wild…
This Is Wild And It Will Impact The US Dollar
March 20 (King World News) – Peter Boockvar: I’ve argued over the past few months that the Mag 7 stocks became a reserve currency holding for foreign holders, including some central banks like the Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank. My friend Torsten Slok posted this chart yesterday highlighting the extent to which foreigners own US stocks. I reiterate my belief expressed last month that the dominance of the AI tech/Mag 7 trade is over and also has possibly repercussions for the US dollar as foreign money finds opportunities elsewhere. Also, if the administration is successful in reducing the US trade deficit (whether a laudable goal or not), foreigners will have less money to reinvest in the US as they accumulate less dollars.
Trump’s In, and Suddenly Jerome Powell is Concerned About Inflation
by Jack Hellner
American Thinker
Jerome Powell says Trump’s trade policies will cause inflation but does not explain why the tariffs in his first term didn’t. Why doesn’t Powell say how fewer regulations and lower energy prices will lower inflation? Why doesn’t he commend Trump for his great efforts to reduce waste, fraud, and abuse since a reduction in federal spending will reduce inflation? Why doesn’t Powell recognize that closed borders will lower inflation?
Here are things that he didn’t say anything about during Biden’s four years, when inflation shot up to over 9%. He didn’t blame Biden’s policies. Nope — he just said they were transitory.
Only a person with no expertise would have missed that these things would lead to inflation.
Federal Reserve Monetary Malfeasance Has Consequences
by Mike Maharrey
GoldSeek
Nothing is forever.
Not even Forever.
Forever 21 recently filed for bankruptcy – again. The clothier reorganized back in 2019. Now it is shutting down for good. According to recent reporting, the company plans to close all 354 stores in what the company calls “an orderly wind down” of its operations.
[…] This is yet another hiccup revealing that the undercarriage of the U.S. economy is rickety.
Forever 21 isn’t drowning alone. Corporate bankruptcies reached a 14-year high last year. Party City, Kohl’s, JCPenney, and Joann Fabrics are among the retailers filing bankruptcies in recent months.
Peter Navarro Explains Trump’s ‘3D War On Inflation’
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
Navarro: Trump Is Fixing the Real Drivers of Inflation
Peter Navarro didn’t mince words when it came to the battle against inflation. In an exclusive interview at the White House with The Alex Marlow Show podcast, hosted by Breitbart Business Digest co-author Alex Marlow, Trump’s senior trade and economic adviser laid out exactly how the administration is thinking about inflation and why the media is getting it all wrong.
Navarro describes inflation as an economic war that the administration is fighting on three critical fronts, a strategy he calls “Trump’s 3D War on Inflation.”
“This is a three-dimensional battle,” Navarro explained. “We’re going after inflation with deregulation, domestic energy, and defunding Biden’s overspending. That’s how we win.”
Powell – The Fed – Inflation – Recession
by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics
Jerome Powell kept rates unchanged as our computer was projecting. However, he did weigh in on the state of the US economy, pointing out that Donald Trump’s policies were one reason why inflation is turning back up. He also reduced the Fed’s 2025 growth projection, noting that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. The Fed is well aware of the Economic Confidence Model. Both Canada and the Fed started to lower rates when the ECM was turned down last May.
[…] Powell said, “Inflation has started to move up,” adding that “there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year.” The confusion people have is that, as I have pointed out before, government employees are counted TWICE in GDP. First as total government spending and second as total personal income. So, firing government employees will have a large,r more exaggerated impact on GDP going forward.
Fed Holds Main Rate Steady, Forecasts Higher Inflation, Slower Growth
“Growth looks like it’s maybe moderating a bit, consumer spending moderating a bit, but still at a solid pace,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference.
by Jim Tyson
CFO Dive
Since Fed officials last met in January, consumer surveys and economic data have flashed warning signs of rising inflation risks and slowing growth.
Consumer spending shrunk 0.5% in January and retail sales last month rose a lower-than-expected 0.2%.
Consumer sentiment has slumped in recent weeks and expectations for higher price pressures have increased, according to surveys by the Conference Board and University of Michigan.
The dual risk of weakening growth with rising inflation — or “stagflation” — stems primarily from policy shifts by the Trump administration, including higher tariffs, widespread layoffs of federal employees and plans for mass deportations, according to economists.
‘Transitory’ is Back as the Fed Doesn’t Expect Tariffs to Have Long-Lasting Inflation Impacts
Economic projections the Fed released Wednesday indicate that while officials see inflation moving up this year more rapidly than previously expected, they also expect the trend to be short-lived.
by Jeff Cox
CNBC.com
The “good ship Transitory,” despite an ominous record, appears ready to sail again for the Federal Reserve.
Economic projections the central bank released Wednesday indicate that while officials see inflation moving up this year more rapidly than previously expected, they also expect the trend to be short-lived. The outlook spurred talk again about “transitory” inflation that caused a major policy headache for the Fed.
At his post-meeting news conference, Chair Jerome Powell said the current outlook is that any price jumps from tariffs likely will be short-lived.
Asked if the Fed is “back at transitory again,” the central bank leader responded, “So I think that’s kind of the base case. But as I said, we really can’t know that. We’re going to have to see how things actually work out.”
Fed Sticks to Wait-and-See, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, “Dot Plot” Shifts Hawkish Amid Rising Inflation & “Uncertainties.” Slows Treasury QT, Maintains MBS QT
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
“Dot plot”: 8 of 19 participants see either no cut or just 1 cut in 2025.
The FOMC voted today to keep the Fed’s five policy rates unchanged, for the second meeting in a row, after cutting by 100 basis points in 2024. All participants agreed with the rate decision. But Christopher Waller dissented because he preferred to continue the current pace of QT.