from Stansberry Research
Home Blog
Cuellar: People Suffering with Inflation ‘Don’t Want to Talk About’ ‘Joy’ Like National Democrats Did
by Ian Hanchett
Breitbart.com
On Tuesday’s broadcast of “NewsNation Now,” Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) argued that Democrats “need to focus on strong border security,” and that another takeaway from the 2024 election is that “People don’t want to talk about the talk of joy, like the Democrats did at the national level, when they’re hurting in paying prices for the eggs and the [milk] and the bread every day.” And Democrats need to focus on cost of living issues.
Cuellar said, “Certainly, we need to focus on what’s important to the working class. I would say this: Look, in Starr County, for example, that has not elected a Republican — or voted for a Republican in 125 years. Trump got 57% of the vote there. I got almost 70% of the vote. So, I was able to focus, and Democrats need to focus on strong border security, number one.
Fed’s Schmid Prepares for Interest Rate Decisions Amid Uncertain Inflation Trends
by Finimize Newsroom
Finimize
What’s going on here?
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is keeping a watchful eye on interest rates as inflation drifts toward the Fed’s 2% target – highlighting uncertainties despite recent rate reductions.
What does this mean?
Recent economic data offers glimmers of hope, with gains in labor and product markets balancing economic conditions and bolstering confidence in achieving the Fed’s inflation goals. Yet, Schmid stays cautious about interest rate paths, not committing to a rate cut at December’s meeting. His voting position next year means a meticulous monetary policy approach is key. Factors like demographics and productivity could redefine inflation dynamics, while ongoing fiscal deficits might demand high rates to curb inflation. Schmid underscores central bank independence as crucial to avert political pressures from disrupting inflation control.
Inflation May Not Be Tamed. How Commodities Can Protect Your Portfolio.
If prices start rising again, copper, corn, and oil could offer protection.
by Andrew Bary
Barron’s
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a leading gauge, is down 2% this year against the 25% gain in the S&P 500 index. That comes after a 13% drop in 2023, when the equity benchmark returned 26%.
Most retail investors have little or no direct exposure to commodities, even as so-called alternatives like private equity, real estate, and private credit prove increasingly popular with wealthy individuals. A Goldman Sachs survey of family offices—ultrahigh-net-worth families that manage their own money—found that they had just a 1% allocation to commodities, against 26% for private equity.
A Tight Housing Market and Inflation Are Holding Back the Remodeling Business
Lowe’s said it’s seeing less demand for expensive DIY home projects.
by Sarina Trangle
Investopedia
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(webp)/GettyImages-2166734504-cefd8cf1cffc4f4a90f303cee97f2bd9.jpg)
The DIY crowd isn’t doing it for Lowe’s.
In a tight housing market, Americans are remodeling less, and that’s challenging for a “DIY dominant business” like Lowe’s, CEO Marvin Ellison said during an earnings call Tuesday. Fewer people are looking to market a home or make it their own: Housing turnover is near a 30-year low, Ellison said, while Americans are still feeling squeezed by high interest rates and inflation.
“Continued underlying pressure in big-ticket discretionary—so, categories like kitchen and bath, flooring and décor—[we] really continue to just see that tied to the macro,” CFO Brandon Sink said, according to a transcript of the call made available by AlphaSense.
In response, executives said, Lowe’s Cos. (LOW) has been trying to focus its core customer on less expensive projects like painting, and generate excitement with a rewards program. The retailer is also trying to serve more home contractors, they said.
U.K. CPI Inflation Rebounds to 2.3% YoY in October vs 2.2% Expected
United Kingdom’s annual CPI jumped 2.3% in October vs. 2.2% estimate.
by FXStreet Team
FX Street
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 2.3% in October after increasing by 1.7% in September, the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Wednesday.
Data beat the expectations for a 2.2% acceleration, moving back above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2.0% target.
Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) edged higher by 3.3% YoY in October as against a 3.2% growth in September while outpacing the market forecast of 3.1%.
The UK October Services CPI inflation advanced to 5.0% YoY in October versus September’s 4.9%.
Breitbart Business Digest: How Bidenomics Triggered the Inflation Crisis and Cost Democrats Everything
by John Carney
Breitbart.com
How Biden’s Spending Explosion Caused the Inflation Crisis
Now that the election is safely in the past, we are finally getting some clarity about the economically damaging inflation that crippled Joe Biden’s presidency and swept the legs out from Kamala Harris’s attempt to become the 47th president.
The Wall Street Journal on Sunday night published a piece by Nick Timiraos, the paper’s chief economics correspondent and the nation’s leading Fed interpreter. Timiraos’s status as the Fed’s main conduit for indirectly communicating with investors and the public and as the Journal‘s top economic news guy is important to understanding the impact of this story.
U.S. Labor Market Still Boosting Inflation, San Francisco Fed Economists Say
by Reuters
Kitco
SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 18 (Reuters) – A tight U.S. labor market is still adding to inflationary pressures, though less so than it did in 2022 and 2023, according to research published on Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve.
“Declines in excess demand pushed inflation down almost three-quarters of a percentage point over the past two years,” San Francisco Fed economists Regis Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro wrote in the regional Fed bank’s latest Economic Letter. “However, elevated demand continued to contribute 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to inflation as of September 2024.”
The finding, based on an analysis of the relationship between inflation and labor market heat as measured by the ratio of job openings to job seekers, could help inform Fed policymakers as they weigh how much further and at what pace to reduce short-term borrowing costs.
How Much Has the Cooling Economy Reduced Inflation?
by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to unemployed workers and of vacancies to effective job seekers—are particularly informative in determining excess demand’s impact on recent inflation. The measures suggest that declines in excess demand pushed inflation down almost three-quarters of a percentage point over the past two years. However, elevated demand continued to contribute 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to inflation as of September 2024.
The well-known Phillips curve explains the relationship between inflation and unemployment—specifically that inflation is high when overall demand exceeds overall supply. With current inflation still somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, it is plausible that excess demand remains in the economy. Our prior research found that labor market tightness as measured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment (V–U ratio) outperformed other common measure of excess demand in forecasting inflation (Barnichon and Shapiro 2022).
Will Inflation Rise Under Trump? Economists Weigh In
by Shane Croucher
Newsweek
Voter dissatisfaction with the economy, particularly the high cost of living after post-COVID inflation, helped bring Donald Trump back to the White House.
Inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, driven by disrupted supply chains, stimulus spending, and global energy prices. Despite recovery efforts, many Americans still felt worse off by the 2024 election.
Trump’s campaign promised to “end inflation” and “make America affordable again,” but some policies could raise prices.
Additional tariffs and mass deportations might increase wages but also production costs. His plans to extend tax cuts could stimulate spending but, if they increase the deficit and federal debt, also drive up interest rates.
Russia is Locking Up Butter as Inflation Crisis Reaches New Heights
by Tim Lister
CTV News
Americans have spent the last few years complaining about inflation. But price rises in Russia are eye-watering by comparison – and just one symptom of an economy that is overheating.
Butter, some meats, and onions are about 25 per cent more expensive than a year ago, according to official data. Some supermarkets have taken to keeping butter in locked cabinets: Russian social media has shown stocks being stolen.
The overall inflation rate is just shy of 10 per cent, much higher than the central bank anticipated.
Inflation is being driven by the rapid rise in wages as the Kremlin pours billions into military industries and sends millions of men to fight in Ukraine. In the middle of a war, companies outside the defence sector can’t compete for workers without paying much higher wages. In turn, they charge higher prices. So the spiral continues.