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Is the U.S. Dollar Done?
by Richard (Rick) Mills
Investor Ideas
May 15, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Donald Trump has boldly imposed a new era of US economic policy dominated by tariffs, trade wars, and threats to the sovereignty of nations it has long considered allies (Canada, Denmark, Panama), as the second-term president aims to rewrite the rules of international trade mostly by disregarding them as he pursues an America-first agenda.
The cost to the United States of Trump’s trade war and “country takeover” rhetoric has already cost America its reputation. After the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canada – despite having renegotiated the NAFTA free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico in his first term – erroneously on the basis of Canada being “subsidized” by hundreds of billions of US dollars every year, Prime Minister-elect Mark Carney said that Canada’s old relationship with the United States, “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over.” (The Guardian).
Inflation Stays Low as Expected, but Superheated Pressure Will Blow Off Steam Soon
by David Haggith
GoldSeek
The big-deal, China-deal stock rally didn’t last long, with the Dow falling recently (while the S&P and Nasdaq put out modest to decent gains). US Treasuries also climbed (intraday) back above the 4.5% level on the 10YR, which has, for a long time now, been the pressurized level at which stocks become troubled.
While Trump engages in an interesting Middle East tour that may bring significant changes over time, I’ll save that complex matter for the weekend Deeper Dive, unless other things come up in the meantime that become more important, and will simply take a look at our first real post-tariff glimpse of inflation.
There was no surprise here because I’ve been saying all along there is little chance of these high tariffs pricing through for consumers until summertime, because retailers will be reluctant to raise prices until existing inventories bought pre-tariffs run out.
The Fed Put a Safety Net Under the Global Dollar. Could Trump Undermine It?
by Vincient Arnold
Barron’s
) are taking the possibility seriously given the Trump administration’s willingness to take unprecedented actions in service of its economic goals. But denigrating the reliability of the global dollar safety net would be a self-harming policy.
Swap lines are arrangements the Fed strikes with other central banks to provide dollars in moments when liquidity is scarce. Versions of these financial-stability tools have existed for decades, but they came into widespread use during the 2008-09 financial crisis. The Fed’s provision of global dollar liquidity is a public good, but it also benefits the U.S. Dollar markets abroad provide credit to U.S. households and businesses. A collapse in those markets would result in contagion to the U.S.
April’s Prices Rose, but Inflation Cooled Overall
Energy costs prices pushed prices up, but the money supply is probably increasing as fast as it ought to.
by Alexander W. Salter
The Daily Economy
After slight deflation in March, prices rose again in April. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2 percent last month. Over the past year, it rose 2.3 percent. “The April change was the smallest 12-month increase in the all items index since February 2021,” BLS notes. This is welcome news for those of us hoping for continued disinflation.
Shelter prices increased 0.3 percent last month, “accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase.” That’s because shelter makes up a large part of the CPI—nearly a third of the index, approximating its share in the average household’s budget. Also, energy prices increased sharply. They’re up 0.7 percent on the month, driven primarily by natural gas and electricity. There’s likely a significant seasonality component here.
New York Inflation Refund Checks
by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics
Governor Kathy Hochul is up for re-election next year, and she’s prepared to throw state revenue at potential voters. New York is introducing the first “inflation refund check,” which will provide over 8.2 million state residents with a cash payout.
“Starting in October, over 8 million New Yorkers will get an inflation refund because it’s simple — this is your money and we’re putting it back in your pockets,” Hochul said in a statement. Hochul claims low and middle-income households will benefit from these checks, which she had already allotted in the state budget for FY 2026. Payouts will be $200 for single filers making up to $75,000 and up to $400 for joint filers making up to $150,00. This is reminiscent of the stimulus checks sent out during the coronavirus pandemic, although the threshold was not adjusted for inflation.
Walmart Warns of Rising Prices Due to Tariffs: This ‘Will Result in Higher Prices’
by Hannah Knudsen
Breitbart.com
Walmart is warning it plans to raise prices due to tariffs, despite the fact April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing President Donald Trump’s tariffs did not affect consumer prices.
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon issued the update during an earnings call on Thursday, stating that they will try to keep prices “low as possible,” but the reality is, they are unable to absorb all of the costs due to tariffs.
“But given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren’t able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins,” McMillon stated, adding, “The higher tariffs will result in higher prices.”
According to reports, consumers can expect to see the higher prices this month.
The End of the Line for King Dollar?
by David Russell
GoldCore
There was a time when Warren Buffett thought gold was a waste of good storage space. Now, he holds $348 billion in cash and is openly worried that the very thing backing that pile, the US dollar, is, to use his phrase, “going to hell.”
We should all pay attention when the man from Omaha gets nervous. Buffett doesn’t panic. He doesn’t bluster. He calmly observes. And what he sees is a country gorging itself on debt while fiddling with fiscal policy like it’s a toddler with a box of matches.
It’s fashionable, especially among financial traditionalists, to dismiss fears of the dollar’s decline as tinfoil-hat territory. But lately, there are a lot more hats out there, and for good reason.
After Five Years of Bidenflation, NBC Launches Grocery Price Tracker
by John Nolte
Breitbart.com
Far-left NBC News, all of a SUDDEN, decided that a necessary public service it can offer is one that tracks grocery store prices.
Funny how this works.
Joe Biden shuffles into the Oval Office and the fake media’s COVID death tracker suddenly disappears (Hey, did you know that even though he was handed a vaccine, more people died of COVID under Biden than Trump?).
Then…
Joe Biden shuffles out of office after ushering in an era of record inflation unseen in five decades, and only now does the far-left NBC News believe it’s a good idea to launch a “grocery price tracker.”
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Services Inflation Bounces Back, No Signs Yet of Tariffs Getting Passed to Consumers
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Where inflation hit in April: Rent, motor vehicle insurance & maintenance, eating out, medical care services, rental cars, utility natural gas, electricity… But prices of apparel & shoes fell.
On a month-to-month basis, inflation bounced back in April, driven by core services and to a lesser extent by utility natural gas and electricity, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. Food prices dipped. Prices of apparel and footwear also dipped.
The Consumer Price Index bounced back and rose by 0.22% (+2.7% annualized) in April from March, after the 0.05% dip (-0.6% annualized) in March (blue in the chart below). There was no evidence of tariffs getting passed through to consumers. The inflation came from services, and also from utility natural gas and electricity.
U.S. April Inflation – 2.3%
by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics
The numbers are in, and the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.3% this April annually, down from March’s 2.4% reading, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. April’s reading is the lowest since February 2021.
Shelter costs drove more than half of all items monthly, increasing by 0.3% on a monthly basis, and 4% annually. The energy index experienced a 0.7% increase from the month prior, slightly offset by a decrease in gas (-0.1% monthly; -11.8% annually), fuel oil (-1.3% monthly; -9.6% annually), and energy commodities (-0.2% monthly; -11.5% annually). Electricity rose 0.8% monthly and is up 3.6% for the year, while piped utility advanced 3.7% and is up an alarming 15.7% annually.
Yes, shelter is included in the CPI, but it’s not real-time, and it’s not accurate. The way they calculate shelter is through something called Owner’s Equivalent Rent. It’s based on what homeowners think they would charge to rent their homes, not what people are actually paying in the real world. They consider the actual purchase of real estate an investment, and therefore, that does not go on the CPI report. actual rents and home prices have surged because of artificially constrained supply, institutional buyers, and rising taxes. So the CPI gives a watered-down version of housing inflation.